I have a data as follows Date Paid Jan-14 13392905 Feb-14 11939873 Mar-14 12473667 Apr-14 12237110 May-14 12579693 Jun-14 12030095 Jul-14 12052101 Aug-14 10205025 Sep-14 12102526 Oct-14 1237336 Nov-14 12148331 Dec-14 9842860 Jan-15 11990085 Feb-15 11061740 Mar-15 12076397 Apr-15 11702514 May-15 11395657 Jun-15 11817594 Jul-15 11643682 Aug-15 10243241 Sep-15 12233001 Oct-15 11769231 Nov-15 12652418 Dec-15 9774333 Jan-16 11888965 Feb-16 11892589 Mar-16 11419517 Apr-16 12143787 May-16 12330387 Jun-16 11929805 Jul-16 11583281 Aug-16 11995557 Sep-16 12646047 Oct-16 12677372 Nov-16 13301244 Dec-16 9915846 Using 2014-2015 information I want to generate forecasts until 2020.Hence, I have split the data into train & test data.train<-window(mydata_ts,start=c(2014,1),end=c(2015,12)) data.test<-window(mydata_ts,start=c(2016,1)) auto.arima(data.train,trace=TRUE,test="kpss",ic="aic") & following are the results: Best model: ARIMA(0,0,0) with non-zero mean Series: data.train ARIMA(0,0,0) with non-zero mean Coefficients: mean 11275058.9 s.e. 463612.8 sigma^2 estimated as 5.381e+12: log likelihood=-385.31 AIC=774.62 AICc=775.19 BIC=776.98 & I get flat forecasts.I have tried using drift but that only helps when forecasting for 2016 & flattens 2017 onward. Is there something that can be done to overcome this.I have also tried the similar exercise in SAS using proc UCM & that seems to generate forecasts better than the auto.arima. Can someone help out?