I have a time series dataset for forecast using Holt-winters model, but my problem is the time series contains breaks or change point, [![enter image description here][1]][1] should we remove the first break? Or is there any other solution for managing breaks in the Holt-Winters model? Knowing that by removing the first breaks data the error rate of my model decrease. Thank you in advance for your answers Abakar , [1]: https://i.sstatic.net/cc51c.png