I am puzzled by how [this Gibbs sampler on section 6][1] works. To put it in simple words, the aim is to sample $\alpha$. The defined terms are: $$\eta\sim \texttt{Beta}(a,b)$$ and $$\alpha \sim \pi \texttt{Gamma}(\theta,f(\eta))+(1-\pi)\texttt{Gamma}(\theta-1,f(\eta))$$ the paper says (with a bit of simplification) > It is now clear how $\alpha$ can be sampled at each stage of the > simulation. At each Gibbs iteration, we first sample $\eta$ from the > defined Beta distribution, and use the sampled $\eta$ and the fixed > $\theta$ to sample $\alpha$ from the mixture of the Gamma > distributions. the confusing bit is, > On completion of the simulation $p(\alpha|\texttt{Data})$ will be > estimated by the usual Monte Carlo averaging > $p(\alpha|\texttt{Data})=\sum_{s=1}^{N}p(\alpha|\theta,\eta_s)$, > where $\eta_s$ are the sampled values of $\eta$. Knowing that the aim in here was to sample $\alpha$, why do we need to estimate $p(\alpha|\texttt{Data})$? We already have a sample for $\alpha$, so what is the need to estimate its probability. Also not sure why can we plug in all the sampled values of $\eta$ in this estimation, shouldn't one just use the sampled $\eta$ based on which we sampled the corresponding $\alpha$? **My only explanation**: Given all the sampled $\alpha$ (let's put them in a set **$S$**) for **each** sampled $\alpha$, we need to compute it's posterior $P(\alpha|\texttt{Data})$. For this, we use all the sampled values for $\eta$ from all the Gibbs iterations to compute the summation. This way each sampled $\alpha$ will get a Monte Carlo averaged posterior estimate. Using the accumulation of all these posterior estimates based on which we sample an $\alpha$ using accumulated posterior estimates of all sampled $\alpha$ in **$S$**. Is this the correct explanation? [1]: https://people.eecs.berkeley.edu/~jordan/courses/281B-spring04/readings/escobar-west.pdf