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Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference that relies on treating the model parameters as random variables and applying Bayes' theorem to deduce subjective probability statements about the parameters or hypotheses, conditional on the observed dataset.
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The Bayesian question (Aachen/Zanzibar) in the "Book of Why" by Judea Pearl
Edit2: As suggested in the comments, I'm framing this in Bayesian terms.
$$
P(stuck \mid t_5) = \frac{P(t_5 \mid stuck)P(stuck)}{P(t_5)}
$$
Where $t_5$ denotes the state where there's no bag on the carousel …