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1 vote

Could we impose to a SARIMA model that the sum of predict values equals a given value (in R)?

Here is a very simple approach: fit a model to your data up to 2022. Forecast this out into 2023. Take the forecasts from these models, and rescale them to sum to the total sales of 2023 that you know....
Stephan Kolassa's user avatar
1 vote

What is the difference between ARMA+Fourier and TBATS model?

A tbats model allows the seasonal patterns to change slowly over time, as explained by Rob Hyndman and colleagues here. In contrast, a harmonic regression (using ...
Nicholas Clark's user avatar
1 vote
Accepted

Predictive Maintenance of factory parts

Given that you know the periodicity, I would suggest that you aim to make a model to predict the 24-hour sliding average, and another to predict the daily variation. For the latter, the training set ...
chrishmorris's user avatar
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