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Questions tagged [forecasting]

Prediction of the future events. It is a special case of [prediction], in the context of [time-series].

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Comparison of MAE and Mean to illustrate the error magnitude

I have predicted a time series with positive, zero and negative values. As error measurement I used the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). In order to give the reader of my paper a better understanding ...
35 views

Prediction of $X_{n+1}$ with Yule-Walker estimate

Consider a causal AR(1) process $X_t = \phi X_{t−1} + Z_t$ with $(Z_t)$ iid with mean 0 and finite variance. I am reading in a book, that $\phi X_n$ is the best predictor for $X_{n+1}$ because it ...
5 views

machine breakdown forecasting

I have 2 .xls worksheets. The first one contains columns with historical machine sensors data. The second page contains machine interruption. I should predict machine breakdown. Could you please ...
27 views

Prewhitening with seasonal response and non-seasonal independent variable

I'm working to develop a forecasting model for a quarterly seasonal variable (quarterly estimated individual income tax payments) using several candidates for non-seasonal independent variables (...
8 views

how to estimate hyper-parameters when cross-validating time series forecasting?

I want to evaluate several forecasting methods on the taylor time series using cross-validation. How do I go about selecting the hyper-parameters for the methods? ...
12 views

Is it necessarily incorrect to randomize train-test split for a time series random forest model?

As part of some preliminary research, I'm experimenting with a random forest classification model for predicting whether the S&P 500 will be higher or lower at tomorrow's close versus today's ...
24 views

How does BATS model work?

I am using BATS on a univariate time series model. I have observed strange behaviour. I have data from 2016 to till date (weekly level). If actual are considered from 2016 to 2019 May, I have used ...
7 views

RNN (LSTM) training on multiple time series

Regarding RNN training, We feed network a network -> point by point from the same time series (or image or smth else). When we “switch from one time series to another”, what should be done or how ...
18 views

Expected value of an AR(1)

Consider the AR(1) model y_t=α+βy_(t-1)+e_t Where the errors are white noise N(0, 1). What is the expected value of y_t.
39 views

Is this time series stationary? What would be your approach to forecasting it? [on hold]

I've been working on the time series prediction of a signal and came across a small misunderstanding. The signal is depicted below: Apparently it looks like there are several stationary local areas ...
29 views

Is it possible to bootstrap a Diebold-Mariano test?

I am currently working on a small project where I want to use a (two-sided) 1-step ahead ($h=1$) Diebold Mariano test to compare forecast losses for different realized measures calculated on time-...
23 views

why isn't the tscv function allowing for step-size other than 1?

the tsCV function from the forecast package allows for forecasting using a rolling forecast window. Why is it that the step-size is always 1 sample ahead, and the ...
14 views

Croston's Method (forecast)

I ran Croston's Method on this data(Sales) with h=3 ...
5 views

How can I accomodate the forecast series to separately fit and predict workdays and weekends?

I'm using the forecast R package. I have the same dilemma as How to forecast daily time series with weekends and holidays?. I understand that the answers consensus ...
10 views

extracting seasonality - using fourier transform vs. learning the coefficients of fourier terms

I'm following hyndman's advice for using fourier terms when fitting a linear regression model to the taylor time-series (with the very long seasonality of 336). My ...
6 views

Neural Networks and a catalogue of the number of floating point operations in various types of statistical and time series models

I recently came across this paper Green AI. In the paper they discussed using floating point operation (FPO) count during testing and implementation of Neural Networks (NNs) to compare the ...
17 views

Forecasting based on previous realizations

A given process has multiple variables moving to a target point. I can collect data of several realizations of this process. What forecasts methods exist for this? I'm familiar with exponential ...
48 views

Short term(10 mins period) forecast using ARIMA

I have 14 months(01/07/2018 to 30/08/2019) of one minute data, which I have aggregated to 10 mins block. So I have a data of dimension "61056 * 350". From this I am using 12 months of data to train ...
69 views

Does smoothed data work better for time series forecasting with LSTMs?

I am training a 3-layer LSTM on time series data ($10^6$ training samples) to predict the next point in the time series, where there is no seasonality and the time series has been made stationary (...
25 views

Is it possible to reconcile forecasts that are not only at different levels of an organizational hierarchy, but also measured in different units?

Consider the following scenario: I have a top line revenue forecasts in dollars for each of my corporate divisions or business units. I have capacity forecasts for each of my regional manufacturing ...
8 views

Uncertainty of additively combined models

I'm dealing with sales forecasts (time-series with few data points) for a company on a department level (one company consists out of multiple departments). My approach is it to build a time-series ...
23 views

tsCV auto.arima with xreg results in NAs

I'm using the tsCV function from the forecast package in R. I'm comparing arima with and without xreg. Without xreg I have no problems. But when I add xreg to the tsCV function I get a matrix of NAs. ...
17 views

Sparse time series of non negative monthly defect percentage [closed]

I want to forecast monthly (5th business day of month, no timestamp) defect percentages for multiple states of USA. Data is sparse (with many zeros, not geospatial) and could be any percentage between ...
70 views

How to predict how the time series behaves in the future?

I was wondering how a statistician estimates how a time series continues. Namely, which is more accurate way to estimate the series? Draw a line between start and end points of the time series data ...
31 views

Predictive Modelling to predict next period sales

I have a Customer data (20 periods) which contains Sales of each customer by Period P1,P2,P3 ... P20) (each period =14 days) Is there anyway to predict P21 period ? Can I used ARIMA or ETS keeping ...
25 views

Forecasting for Regression with sARIMA errors only needing new xreg's

I would like to get a better sense of why we only need new exogenous regressor data for forecasting Regression with sARIMA errors to new time periods, and not new time series data. Specifically what ...
18 views

Narrowing down model for 2-independent variable time series forecasting

I've got a project I'd like to start working on and it roughly goes like this: I have past time series data for thousands of products that a company produces. There is a high weekly and yearly ...
20 views

How to fit a regression model with ARIMA errors on the seasonally adjusted component of a time series (in R)?

I want to do these two things (combined) with a time series T: forecast the seasonally adjusted component of T (STL used for the decomposition) and "add back" the seasonality (I assume that the ...
20 views

ML preprocess to achieve stationarity

I would like to use Machine learning models on top of multivariate time series data to forecast long horizons (for example 400 items and their historical sales in the last year & content features)...
42 views

Is it possible to forecast multivariate time series using exponential smoothing equations? If yes what are those equations?

I know we can forecast univariate time series using different models of exponential smoothing , but am searching for whether same can be extended to multivariate time series and if yes what are those ...
25 views

Capturing cycles in time series with Fourier

In time series regression with Fourier, Fourier terms are limited to maximum half of the frequency of time series to capture seasonality. my question is: Can we extend Fourier terms beyond half of ...
27 views

time series forecasting - predicting the next 24 hours

I have much the same problem as predict-the-next-24-hours, I have several years of hourly data of demand, and I would like to predict the next 24 hours. Ignoring the multi-seasonality issues - is it ...
23 views

WMAPE / WAPE for the evaluation of time series with positive and negative values

I have a time series y that has both positive and negative that I want to predict. For the prediction I normalize the values to a range between 0 and 1. If I give ...
26 views

Prediction interval for multi step forecast

If I have a multi-step forecast of some timeseries, where the model is some auto-regressive function y[t] = f(y[t-1],x1[t],x2[t]) is it a valide approach to use sections of historical data to train ...
35 views

Adjustment of the forecast of a time series for the analysis of a system

I have a simulation model of a system which receives a forecast of a time series as input. In my scientific work I would like to examine how the performance of the simulation model behaves in relation ...
39 views

Demand forecasting

I am forecasting number of phone calls (y) i ll be getting based on the products sold(x) and I am doing the following: (forecasted y) = (y/x averaged for past three weeks) * (forecasted x). 1. Please ...
20 views

weekly forecasting

I am building a weekly forecasting model using dynamic harmonic regression model with Arima errors and Fourier terms. My understanding is that Fourier terms take care of seasonality of any length ...
23 views

Improving accuracy in time series forecasting [duplicate]

I am trying to forecast a very typical sales data. I have tried Arima, ETS, Holtwinters and even neural networks but I can't get a model with more than 40% accuracy [Absolute sum of(forecast-Actual)/...
75 views

book recommendation: statistics (time-series) for small samples [closed]

I was hoping someone could recommend a good book on statistical methods for time-series on small data samples. We are really looking to do some forecasting/extrapolation given 13 years of previous ...
32 views

What is a Good Error Target

I am modeling a forecast for product categories using auto Arima in R. I'm getting MAPE of between 9-15% on average. We don't have any historical records of forecasts vs actual so I don't know how ...
19 views

What forecast method is correct to apply to data in range -1 to 1

I have metrological data they strictly have range -1 to 1. For example -0,97654 0,0376544 0,049765976 -0,578 measurement values are tied to a point in time ....
80 views

Should I avoid mixed ARMA models?

I have hourly demand data for taxi rides that spans several years into the past. I want to use it in order to forecast future demand (for the next day). Robert Nau warns against the usage of a mixed ...
39 views

Any ideas on how to forecast this timeseries?

I have the following timeseries and unfortunately no other information except time and holidays. What methods could work for a probabilistic forecast of this? I thought about some regime changing ...
21 views

Why forecast::accuracy() mape is working with 0/0?

I'm learning now some metrics of goodness about time series forecasting, using the forecast package, but I'm stuck in something that surely I've not understood well....
24 views

auto.arima with an input of another series

Two time series, which are related to each other. I want to see if "order" helps in predicting sales, by running auto.arima ...
16 views

What are good public datasets for time series analysis with “certified” (by papers in the literature) good predictors of the target variable? [closed]

I have to test different models for time series forecasting and predictors (exogenous covariates) goodness evaluation and I would like to use datasets used in relevant scientific publications that ...
26 views

checking accuracy of a forecast [closed]

I am trying to predict future sale of a product by using holt-winters imp info: nextsalesf contains the forecast for next 5 periods val\$Qty.2011001FBL0010250 is the known values of next 5 ...
13 views

Choosing the correct moving average model

I am working with the in built Air Passenger data set in R to learn forecasting. After splitting the data in 120:24 data points, I am trying to extract trend ...