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Unanswered Questions

50,976 questions with no upvoted or accepted answers
29
votes
0answers
2k views

Probability inequalities

I am looking for some probability inequalities for sums of unbounded random variables. I would really appreciate it if anyone can provide me some thoughts. My problem is to find an exponential upper ...
25
votes
0answers
1k views

Link Anomaly Detection in Temporal Network

I came across this paper that uses link anomaly detection to predict trending topics, and I found it incredibly intriguing: The paper is "Discovering Emerging Topics in Social Streams via Link Anomaly ...
24
votes
1answer
466 views

Jaynes' $A_p$ distribution

In Jaynes' book "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science", Jaynes has a chapter (Ch 18) entitled "The $A_p$ distribution and rule of succession" in which he introduces the idea of $A_p$ distributions,...
21
votes
0answers
9k views

The cross validation (CV) and the generalized cross validation (GCV) statistics

I have found possibly conflicting definitions for the cross validation (CV) statistic and for the generalized cross validation (GCV) statistic associated with a linear model $Y = X\boldsymbol\beta + \...
20
votes
1answer
511 views

Wavelet-domain gaussian processes: what is the covariance?

I've been reading Maraun et al, "Nonstationary Gaussian processes in wavelet domain: Synthesis, estimation, and significant testing" (2007) which defines a class of non-stationary GPs that can be ...
18
votes
0answers
518 views

Bound for Arithmetic Harmonic mean inequality for matrices?

NOTE: This question has originally been posted in MSE, but it did not generate any interest. It was first posted there, because the question itself is a pure matrix-algebra question. Nevertheless, ...
17
votes
0answers
364 views

Blind source separation of convex mixture?

Suppose I have $n$ independent sources, $X_1, X_2, ..., X_n$ and I observe $m$ convex mixtures: \begin{align} Y_1 &= a_{11}X_1 + a_{12}X_2 + \cdots + a_{1n}X_n\\ ...&\\ Y_m &= a_{m1}X_1 + ...
17
votes
1answer
948 views

$ARIMA(p,d,q)+X_t$, Simulation over Forecasting period

I have time series data and I used an $ARIMA(p,d,q)+X_t$ as the model to fit the data. The $X_t$ is an indicator random variable that is either 0 (when I don’t see a rare event) or 1 (when I see the ...
16
votes
1answer
628 views

Upper bounds for the copula density?

The Fréchet–Hoeffding upper bound applies to the copula distribution function and it is given by $$C(u_1,...,u_d)\leq \min\{u_1,..,u_d\}.$$ Is there a similar (in the sense that it depends on the ...
15
votes
0answers
925 views

How to create a multivariate Brownian Bridge

It is known, that a standard multivariate Brownian bridge $ y(\mathbf u) $ is a centered Gaussian process with covariance function $$ \mathbb E(y(\mathbf u) y(\mathbf v)) = \prod_{j=1}^d (u_j \wedge ...
14
votes
0answers
1k views

AIC versus cross validation in time series: the small sample case

I am interested in model selection in a time series setting. For concreteness, suppose I want to select an ARMA model from a pool of ARMA models with different lag orders. The ultimate intent is ...
14
votes
0answers
478 views

Distribution of inverse Wishart to a power?

In a related question, I had asked about the norm induced by an inverse Wishart matrix. I am interested in generalizing that result somewhat. Let $A\sim\mathcal{W}_p\left(I,n\right)$, a Wishart matrix ...
14
votes
1answer
789 views

Least stupid way to forecast a short multivariate time series

I need to forecast the following 4 variables for the 29th unit of time. I have roughly 2 years worth of historical data, where 1 and 14 and 27 are all the same period (or time of year). In the end, I ...
13
votes
0answers
401 views

Fitting custom distributions by MLE

My question relates to fitting custom distributions in R but I feel it has enough of a probability element to remain on CV. I have an interesting set of data which has the following characteristics: ...
13
votes
0answers
228 views

Pooling calibration plots after multiple imputation

I would like advice on pooling the calibration plots/statistics after multiple imputation. In the setting of developing statistical models in order to predict a future event (e.g. using data from ...

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