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Apr 28, 2015 at 18:38 history edited javlacalle CC BY-SA 3.0
removed duplicated piece of code
Apr 26, 2015 at 20:25 comment added Dirk library(PolynomF),library(polynom) f1=as.function(as.polynomial( fit $varresult$ X1$ fitted.values)). This function I want to use for back testing for the first 12th entry, and then for the second 12th. But I think the best solution is going to be with a sarima model although the residuals are non-normally distributed.
Apr 26, 2015 at 20:20 comment added Dirk thx. The VAR fit brings the problem of insignificance of the estimates (only the first estimates are significant). I fitted also p=2, the problem of insignificance exists only for the variable X1 for first column values and the other columns are ok. But I dont think that the assumption of zero for the other columns will make things better. Because every coefficient in the 11th degree polynomial has a contribution to the curvature. I want to calculate MAPE for back testing but the total observation number is 15, the observation number is 14 and so the number of fitted values.
Apr 26, 2015 at 17:17 history answered javlacalle CC BY-SA 3.0