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shadowtalker
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Your understanding is mostly correct. Let $X$ be a random variable that follows the same distribution as your test statistic under the null hypothesis. The p value is the probability that a randomly drawn $X$ is at least as large as the test statistic you computed. If that probability is very low, then that is good reason to believe that the null hypothesis does not hold.

As the other answer mentions, doYou just need to be careful about the difference in terminology between p value and significance level. A significance level is a pre-specified cutoff p value, below which you reject the null hypothesis and above which you do not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. The p value itself is just a probability-valued function of the test statistic that gets smaller as the test statistic gets more extreme (i.e. the CDF of the distribution of the test statistic under the null).

So the significance level does not determine the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis. The significance level determines the largest probability of rejecting the null that you would consider evidence enough to reject the null. When you set a significance level, you are setting an upper bound, below which you find the probability of observing the null too extreme to believe it was randomly drawn from the null distribution.

You might have been confused by someone talking about type 1 error rates and such. All that stuff means is that, if you run the experiment many times, if the null hypothesis is true ever time, and you set your significance level to $\alpha$, you will reject the null hypothesis $\alpha \times 100$% of the time purely due to random chance. Understanding this can help you set reasonable $\alpha$ levels if you do plan to do null hypothesis testing.

Your understanding is correct. Let $X$ be a random variable that follows the same distribution as your test statistic under the null hypothesis. The p value is the probability that a randomly drawn $X$ is at least as large as the test statistic you computed. If that probability is very low, then that is good reason to believe that the null hypothesis does not hold.

As the other answer mentions, do be careful about the difference in terminology between p value and significance level. A significance level is a pre-specified cutoff p value, below which you reject the null hypothesis and above which you do not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. The p value itself is just a probability-valued function of the test statistic that gets smaller as the test statistic gets more extreme (i.e. the CDF of the distribution of the test statistic under the null).

Your understanding is mostly correct. Let $X$ be a random variable that follows the same distribution as your test statistic under the null hypothesis. The p value is the probability that a randomly drawn $X$ is at least as large as the test statistic you computed. If that probability is very low, then that is good reason to believe that the null hypothesis does not hold.

You just need to be careful about the difference in terminology between p value and significance level. A significance level is a pre-specified cutoff p value, below which you reject the null hypothesis and above which you do not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. The p value itself is just a probability-valued function of the test statistic that gets smaller as the test statistic gets more extreme (i.e. the CDF of the distribution of the test statistic under the null).

So the significance level does not determine the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis. The significance level determines the largest probability of rejecting the null that you would consider evidence enough to reject the null. When you set a significance level, you are setting an upper bound, below which you find the probability of observing the null too extreme to believe it was randomly drawn from the null distribution.

You might have been confused by someone talking about type 1 error rates and such. All that stuff means is that, if you run the experiment many times, if the null hypothesis is true ever time, and you set your significance level to $\alpha$, you will reject the null hypothesis $\alpha \times 100$% of the time purely due to random chance. Understanding this can help you set reasonable $\alpha$ levels if you do plan to do null hypothesis testing.

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shadowtalker
  • 12.8k
  • 4
  • 58
  • 123

Your understanding is correct. Let $X$ be a random variable that follows the same distribution as your test statistic under the null hypothesis. The p value is the probability that a randomly drawn $X$ is at least as large as the test statistic you computed. If that probability is very low, then that is good reason to believe that the null hypothesis does not hold.

As the other answer mentions, do be careful about the difference in terminology between p value and significance level. A significance level is a pre-specified cutoff p value, below which you reject the null hypothesis and above which you do not have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. The p value itself is just a probability-valued function of the test statistic that gets smaller as the test statistic gets more extreme (i.e. the CDF of the distribution of the test statistic under the null).