Timeline for Probability of a rare event
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
11 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2016 at 19:20 | vote | accept | Grk58 | ||
| Jan 21, 2016 at 14:18 | answer | added | MikeP | timeline score: 1 | |
| Jan 21, 2016 at 5:26 | comment | added | Mageek | Can't get a Bayesian answer without priors :) | |
| Jan 21, 2016 at 4:09 | history | edited | gung - Reinstate Monica |
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| Jan 21, 2016 at 4:06 | comment | added | Grk58 | I want to see how to approach this very generic problem from the statistician point of view (which I'm obviously not). In other words, I'd like to order a sandwich without listing every ingredient, relying on your, chefs, expertise. | |
| Jan 21, 2016 at 4:04 | comment | added | Grk58 | I am a high-school dropout, so Poisson - yeah, homogenous - yeah. No natural starting point - observation can start at any time. Since there's no answer from frequentist point of view, let's see Bayesian. Don't have any priors, and hope to stay that way :) | |
| Jan 21, 2016 at 0:08 | comment | added | gung - Reinstate Monica | This seems like a question for @cardinal... | |
| Jan 21, 2016 at 0:08 | comment | added | gung - Reinstate Monica | I don't think this is answerable at present. Are you thinking of something like a Poisson process? If so, is it homogenous? Is day 0 some kind of natural starting point (say when the most event occurred? Also, are you thinking of this from a Bayesian point of view? (From the frequentist point of view, there isn't such a thing as a "probability that it's rare".) If you want a Bayesian response, what is your prior? Or did you just want to know the probability of finding data as extreme as yours under the assumption it's rare? Etc. | |
| Jan 20, 2016 at 23:35 | review | Close votes | |||
| Jan 21, 2016 at 4:09 | |||||
| Jan 20, 2016 at 23:17 | review | First posts | |||
| Jan 21, 2016 at 0:09 | |||||
| Jan 20, 2016 at 23:13 | history | asked | Grk58 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |