Since by definition sum is always $10$ or more and mean of sum of points is sum/number_draws
, than in fact you are interested in how many cards do you have to draw, on average, so their total score sums up to $10$ or more.
By your definition, you have $16$ cards ($10$, $\text{J}$, $\text{K}$, $\text{Q}$) that are worth $10$ points, so with probability $16/52$ you get $10$ points in a single draw. Since $9+\text{anything}=10$, then if we take into consideration that there is $4$ nines, than we instantly know that with probability greater than $20/52$ you finish in two draws. However, return of two draws is simple to obtain by enumerating all $52 \choose 2$ combinations of cardscard pairs and summing their scores. Since order of drawing cards does not matter there is $52 \choose 2$ possible combinations of card pairs:
unique_cards <- c(1:10, 10, 10, 10) # A, 1, 2, ..., 10, J, Q, K
unique_cards <- rep(unique_cards, 4) # each appears 4 times
comb <- combn(unique_cards, 2) # take all possible combinations of card pairs
what gives $79\%$ probability of obtaining score of at least $10$ in two draws
> sum(colSums(comb) >= 10)/choose(52, 2) # accepted / all combinations
[1] 0.7888386
Lazy solution for more than two draws can be obtained by a simple simulation, where whole deck is shuffled and then cards are drawn until their total score is at least $10$.
set.seed(123)
sim <- function(target = 10) {
res <- cumsum(sample(unique_cards)) # shuffle, draw and sum
n <- which.max(res >= target) # take first score >= 10
c(sum = res[n], n = n)
}
R <- 1e4
res <- replicate(R, sim())
and the result is that on average you have to draw two cards and the average total score is $12.77$:
> apply(res, 1, summary)
sum n
Min. 10.00 1.000
1st Qu. 10.00 1.000
Median 12.00 2.000
Mean 12.77 1.946
3rd Qu. 15.00 2.000
Max. 19.00 6.000
moreoverMoreover, as expected, with approximately $30\%$ probability you finish with one draw, but with $79\%$ probability you finish with two draws and you rarely get over three draws:
> cumsum(table(res[2,])/R)
1 2 3 4 5 6
0.3006 0.7910 0.9653 0.9968 0.9999 1.0000