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Apr 29, 2016 at 8:20 comment added Glen_b The guy's name was Bayes, so Bayes' theorem or possibly Bayes's theorem, but not Baye's. Please fix your title.
Apr 29, 2016 at 7:04 comment added Mauricio Ramalho Custodio I also had difficulty with getting Bayes' Theorem intuitive even after learning its maths and applications by core. After watching 10-15 videos about the topic I found THIS PARTICULAR ONE which made it very clear and should back up the awesome answers by @Jamie Hall and @Alexander Etz
Apr 29, 2016 at 6:05 comment added Matthew Gunn @RyanWilliams Your math is correct! What's not correct is the intuitive notion that, "if the test came back positive, then it shouldn't have such a high probability that there's no tumor present," at least for the probabilities given in this particular problem.
Apr 29, 2016 at 4:38 answer added Alexander Etz timeline score: 3
Apr 29, 2016 at 4:30 vote accept Ryan Williams
Apr 29, 2016 at 4:24 answer added Jamie Hall timeline score: 2
Apr 29, 2016 at 4:13 comment added Ryan Williams Because a positive test should indicate that the woman has a tumor. So if the test came back positive, then it shouldn't have such a high probability that there's no tumor present.
Apr 29, 2016 at 4:02 comment added Alexander Etz What about your result doesn't make sense?
Apr 29, 2016 at 3:18 history asked Ryan Williams CC BY-SA 3.0