Timeline for Probability of a single real-life future event: What does it mean when they say that "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning"?
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
4 events
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| Jul 28, 2016 at 12:23 | comment | added | user41979 | @Innisfree: If half the times you have a 75% degree of belief in something it turns out to be wrong, you need to recalibrate how you're measuring your belief! No need for imagined experiments to be involved, just an objective measure of how often your belief has translated into reality in the past. | |
| Jul 28, 2016 at 6:15 | comment | added | innisfree | No, the meaning is clearly epistemological/Bayesian, 75% degree of belief. No one is imagining pseudo-experiments in which the election result is a random variable. | |
| Jul 24, 2016 at 17:57 | review | First posts | |||
| Jul 24, 2016 at 18:18 | |||||
| Jul 24, 2016 at 17:57 | history | answered | user41979 | CC BY-SA 3.0 |