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dsaxton
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I'm having trouble following your logic, but yes, you've made some mistakes (a correlation cannot exceed one in absolute value, for example). $\text{E}(X_1)$ is easy enough to find so let's start by calculating $\text{E}(X_2)$. The key is to condition on $X_1$ and then calculate the expectation in pieces.

\begin{align} \text{E}(X_2) &= \text{E} [ \text{E} (X_2 \mid X_1) ] \\ &= P(X_1 = 1) \text{E} (X_2 \mid X_1 = 1) + P(X_1 = 0) \text{E}(X_2 \mid X_1 = 0) \\ &= \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{1 + c}{4 + c} + \frac{3}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{4 + c} \\ &= \frac{4 + c}{4 (4 + c)} \\ &= \frac{1}{4} . \end{align}

This is interesting as it says that on averageon average $X_2$ behaves just like $X_1$. Now since these are Bernoulli random variables with the same expectation the variances are easy:

\begin{align} \text{Var}(X_i) &= \text{E}(X_i^2) - \text{E}(X_i)^2 \\ &= \frac{1}{4} - \frac{1}{16} \\ &= \frac{3}{16} . \end{align}

The only thing left to calculate is the covariance and we can use the identity $\text{Cov}(X_1, X_2) = \text{E}(X_1 X_2) - \text{E}(X_1) \text{E}(X_2)$. We already know the rightmost term so for the other we have

\begin{align} \text{E}(X_2 X_2) &= P(X_1 = 1 \cap X_2 = 1) \\ &= P(X_1 = 1) P(X_2 = 1 \mid X_1 = 1) \\ &= \frac{1 + c}{4 (4 + c)} \end{align}

yielding

\begin{align} \text{Cov}(X_1, X_2) &= \frac{1 + c}{4 (4 + c)} - \frac{1}{16} \\ &= \frac{3c}{16 (4 + c)} . \end{align}

If we now divide by this $\sqrt{\text{Var}(X_1) \text{Var}(X_2)}$ we get

\begin{align} \text{Corr}(X_1, X_2) &= \frac{c}{4 + c} . \end{align}

This makes sense since as $c \to \infty$ we have $X_1 = X_2$ with high probability so the correlation should approach one.

I'm having trouble following your logic, but yes, you've made some mistakes (a correlation cannot exceed one in absolute value, for example). $\text{E}(X_1)$ is easy enough to find so let's start by calculating $\text{E}(X_2)$. The key is to condition on $X_1$ and then calculate the expectation in pieces.

\begin{align} \text{E}(X_2) &= \text{E} [ \text{E} (X_2 \mid X_1) ] \\ &= P(X_1 = 1) \text{E} (X_2 \mid X_1 = 1) + P(X_1 = 0) \text{E}(X_2 \mid X_1 = 0) \\ &= \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{1 + c}{4 + c} + \frac{3}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{4 + c} \\ &= \frac{4 + c}{4 (4 + c)} \\ &= \frac{1}{4} . \end{align}

This is interesting as it says that on average $X_2$ behaves just like $X_1$. Now since these are Bernoulli random variables with the same expectation the variances are easy:

\begin{align} \text{Var}(X_i) &= \text{E}(X_i^2) - \text{E}(X_i)^2 \\ &= \frac{1}{4} - \frac{1}{16} \\ &= \frac{3}{16} . \end{align}

The only thing left to calculate is the covariance and we can use the identity $\text{Cov}(X_1, X_2) = \text{E}(X_1 X_2) - \text{E}(X_1) \text{E}(X_2)$. We already know the rightmost term so for the other we have

\begin{align} \text{E}(X_2 X_2) &= P(X_1 = 1 \cap X_2 = 1) \\ &= P(X_1 = 1) P(X_2 = 1 \mid X_1 = 1) \\ &= \frac{1 + c}{4 (4 + c)} \end{align}

yielding

\begin{align} \text{Cov}(X_1, X_2) &= \frac{1 + c}{4 (4 + c)} - \frac{1}{16} \\ &= \frac{3c}{16 (4 + c)} . \end{align}

If we now divide by this $\sqrt{\text{Var}(X_1) \text{Var}(X_2)}$ we get

\begin{align} \text{Corr}(X_1, X_2) &= \frac{c}{4 + c} . \end{align}

This makes sense since as $c \to \infty$ we have $X_1 = X_2$ with high probability so the correlation should approach one.

I'm having trouble following your logic, but yes, you've made some mistakes (a correlation cannot exceed one in absolute value, for example). $\text{E}(X_1)$ is easy enough to find so let's start by calculating $\text{E}(X_2)$. The key is to condition on $X_1$ and then calculate the expectation in pieces.

\begin{align} \text{E}(X_2) &= \text{E} [ \text{E} (X_2 \mid X_1) ] \\ &= P(X_1 = 1) \text{E} (X_2 \mid X_1 = 1) + P(X_1 = 0) \text{E}(X_2 \mid X_1 = 0) \\ &= \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{1 + c}{4 + c} + \frac{3}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{4 + c} \\ &= \frac{4 + c}{4 (4 + c)} \\ &= \frac{1}{4} . \end{align}

This is interesting as it says that on average $X_2$ behaves just like $X_1$. Now since these are Bernoulli random variables with the same expectation the variances are easy:

\begin{align} \text{Var}(X_i) &= \text{E}(X_i^2) - \text{E}(X_i)^2 \\ &= \frac{1}{4} - \frac{1}{16} \\ &= \frac{3}{16} . \end{align}

The only thing left to calculate is the covariance and we can use the identity $\text{Cov}(X_1, X_2) = \text{E}(X_1 X_2) - \text{E}(X_1) \text{E}(X_2)$. We already know the rightmost term so for the other we have

\begin{align} \text{E}(X_2 X_2) &= P(X_1 = 1 \cap X_2 = 1) \\ &= P(X_1 = 1) P(X_2 = 1 \mid X_1 = 1) \\ &= \frac{1 + c}{4 (4 + c)} \end{align}

yielding

\begin{align} \text{Cov}(X_1, X_2) &= \frac{1 + c}{4 (4 + c)} - \frac{1}{16} \\ &= \frac{3c}{16 (4 + c)} . \end{align}

If we now divide by this $\sqrt{\text{Var}(X_1) \text{Var}(X_2)}$ we get

\begin{align} \text{Corr}(X_1, X_2) &= \frac{c}{4 + c} . \end{align}

This makes sense since as $c \to \infty$ we have $X_1 = X_2$ with high probability so the correlation should approach one.

Source Link
dsaxton
  • 12.2k
  • 1
  • 27
  • 48

I'm having trouble following your logic, but yes, you've made some mistakes (a correlation cannot exceed one in absolute value, for example). $\text{E}(X_1)$ is easy enough to find so let's start by calculating $\text{E}(X_2)$. The key is to condition on $X_1$ and then calculate the expectation in pieces.

\begin{align} \text{E}(X_2) &= \text{E} [ \text{E} (X_2 \mid X_1) ] \\ &= P(X_1 = 1) \text{E} (X_2 \mid X_1 = 1) + P(X_1 = 0) \text{E}(X_2 \mid X_1 = 0) \\ &= \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{1 + c}{4 + c} + \frac{3}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{4 + c} \\ &= \frac{4 + c}{4 (4 + c)} \\ &= \frac{1}{4} . \end{align}

This is interesting as it says that on average $X_2$ behaves just like $X_1$. Now since these are Bernoulli random variables with the same expectation the variances are easy:

\begin{align} \text{Var}(X_i) &= \text{E}(X_i^2) - \text{E}(X_i)^2 \\ &= \frac{1}{4} - \frac{1}{16} \\ &= \frac{3}{16} . \end{align}

The only thing left to calculate is the covariance and we can use the identity $\text{Cov}(X_1, X_2) = \text{E}(X_1 X_2) - \text{E}(X_1) \text{E}(X_2)$. We already know the rightmost term so for the other we have

\begin{align} \text{E}(X_2 X_2) &= P(X_1 = 1 \cap X_2 = 1) \\ &= P(X_1 = 1) P(X_2 = 1 \mid X_1 = 1) \\ &= \frac{1 + c}{4 (4 + c)} \end{align}

yielding

\begin{align} \text{Cov}(X_1, X_2) &= \frac{1 + c}{4 (4 + c)} - \frac{1}{16} \\ &= \frac{3c}{16 (4 + c)} . \end{align}

If we now divide by this $\sqrt{\text{Var}(X_1) \text{Var}(X_2)}$ we get

\begin{align} \text{Corr}(X_1, X_2) &= \frac{c}{4 + c} . \end{align}

This makes sense since as $c \to \infty$ we have $X_1 = X_2$ with high probability so the correlation should approach one.