Timeline for How can we judge the accuracy of Nate Silver's predictions?
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
4 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
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| Oct 8, 2016 at 21:43 | comment | added | DVK | @GeoMatt22 - he has reasonably similar methodology for other elections, so it may be valid to aggregate all election predictions | |
| Oct 8, 2016 at 20:07 | comment | added | GeoMatt22 | For "is minimized in expectation", I think the key issue is expectation over what ensemble? Do we take all of Nate Silver's predictions? Only those over presidential elections? I do not know if there is a single answer here. For comparing different forecasters, predictions over any common set of events could be reasonable. | |
| Oct 8, 2016 at 19:13 | comment | added | kjetil b halvorsen♦ | Another way to say it: The individual forecasted probability of a unique event cannot be evaluated alone, but forecasters can be evaluated (by score functions). | |
| Oct 8, 2016 at 13:50 | history | answered | Stephan Kolassa | CC BY-SA 3.0 |