Timeline for Calculating the probability of someone winning from a poll
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
9 events
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| Jun 11, 2020 at 14:32 | history | edited | CommunityBot |
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| Feb 2, 2020 at 17:23 | comment | added | whuber♦ | @baxx What are these "other approaches" to which you refer? This answer discusses the classical solution and the use of ternary diagrams in detail and, at the end, at least sketches one Bayesian solution. What remains to discuss? | |
| Feb 2, 2020 at 17:19 | comment | added | baxx | it would certainly be interesting if the other approaches were discussed, as well as having the code used for simulations provided. | |
| Sep 7, 2017 at 15:08 | comment | added | whuber♦ | @Kodiologist If you want the Bayes solution, yes you could move directly to the simulation. (Actually you don't need the simulation because you can compute the posterior directly). But the point of this answer is to show how to obtain the classical solution, which is not easy: how exactly does one develop and interpret a confidence interval (or test a hypothesis) for the events "$A$ wins," "$B$ wins," and "$C$ wins?" I believe there is no post on this site that addresses such a question. I'm pretty sure the use of ternary diagrams is new to this site, too. | |
| Sep 7, 2017 at 14:33 | comment | added | Kodiologist | Thanks. I understand your answer now, but it does seem far more complex than necessary. As soon as you have the MLE, you can conduct the simulation in the final paragraph to compute a posterior probability that each candidate will win. | |
| Sep 7, 2017 at 13:53 | history | edited | whuber♦ | CC BY-SA 3.0 |
added 280 characters in body
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| Sep 7, 2017 at 13:51 | comment | added | whuber♦ | @Kodiologist It's a multinomial coefficient, equal to $n!/(a!b!c!)$. Usually I explain that in a post but I forgot--I'll add it in. | |
| Sep 6, 2017 at 23:02 | comment | added | Kodiologist | Is $n \choose abc$ a binomial coefficient? Since $n = a + b + c$, it seems that in general $abc$ will be greater than $n$ and hence ${n \choose abc} = 0$. | |
| Sep 6, 2017 at 22:27 | history | answered | whuber♦ | CC BY-SA 3.0 |