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Richard Hardy
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Why is a GARCH model useful?

As I understand it, one can model changing variance of a time series process with a GARCH model. What I don't understand is, how can one actually make predictions with this? Since $$ y_t = \sigma_t \epsilon_t $$ with $\epsilon_t$ being a Gauss distributed-distributed random variable, the expectationaexpected value of this is always zero. So how does it help to know, how big the variance is, when both, a an up and a down isare equally likely? 
Or did I understand something wrong?

Why is a GARCH model useful

As I understand it, one can model changing variance of a time series process with a GARCH model. What I don't understand is, how can one actually make predictions with this? Since $$ y_t = \sigma_t \epsilon_t $$ with $\epsilon_t$ being a Gauss distributed random variable, the expectationa value of this is always zero. So how does it help to know, how big the variance is, when both, a up and a down is equally likely? Or did I understand something wrong?

Why is a GARCH model useful?

As I understand it, one can model changing variance of a time series process with a GARCH model. What I don't understand is, how can one actually make predictions with this? Since $$ y_t = \sigma_t \epsilon_t $$ with $\epsilon_t$ being a Gauss-distributed random variable, the expected value of this is always zero. So how does it help to know, how big the variance is, when both an up and a down are equally likely? 
Or did I understand something wrong?

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Luca Thiede
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Why is a GARCH model useful

As I understand it, one can model changing variance of a time series process with a GARCH model. What I don't understand is, how can one actually make predictions with this? Since $$ y_t = \sigma_t \epsilon_t $$ with $\epsilon_t$ being a Gauss distributed random variable, the expectationa value of this is always zero. So how does it help to know, how big the variance is, when both, a up and a down is equally likely? Or did I understand something wrong?