As I understand it, one can model changing variance of a time series process with a GARCH model. What I don't understand is, how can one actually make predictions with this?
Since
$$
y_t = \sigma_t \epsilon_t
$$
with $\epsilon_t$ being a Gauss distributed-distributed random variable, the expectationaexpected value of this is always zero. So how does it help to know, how big the variance is, when both, a an up and a down isare equally likely?
Or did I understand something wrong?