Timeline for Probability of winning multiple coin toss bets
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
9 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2018 at 14:56 | vote | accept | Danny Richman | ||
| May 25, 2018 at 14:33 | comment | added | quanty | The casino don't limit the number of times you play because they take enough money from all the times you lose before winning | |
| May 25, 2018 at 14:29 | comment | added | quanty | The probability of you winning any given bet on black or red is 47.4%, because each bet is independent of any of the others. Basic probability theory says that we multiply independent probabilities to get the probability of them all happening. So the probability of winning the casino bet 3 times is $0.474\times 0.474 \times 0.474 = 0.106$. It's a similar thing, but is different to asking how likely you are to win after losing loads of times. | |
| May 25, 2018 at 14:11 | comment | added | Danny Richman | Still confused- sorry. If I go to a casino and make a single bet on black or red the probability of me winning the bet 47.4%. The probability of me winning is the same whether I bet once or bet 1,000 times. If my odds improved the more times I played, the casino would surely limit the number of times I could play. I realise that the probability and the odds are different in this example from the coin toss, but surely the principle is the same? Playing more does not increase my chance of winning. | |
| May 25, 2018 at 13:56 | comment | added | quanty | Hi Danny, in the case of this game, since the probability of heads or tails is the same (1/2), the above actually applies for your game. I have modified my answer slightly. Note, however, that if the coin was defective, and the probability of heads (or tails) was greater than 1/2, then the above would not be the case. | |
| May 25, 2018 at 13:52 | history | edited | quanty | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 25, 2018 at 13:52 | comment | added | Danny Richman | Many thanks for your answer but you have assumed incorrectly. It makes no difference whether you chose heads or tails. At each toss of the coin, you can call heads or tails. If you have call the toss correctly, you win. If you call it incorrectly, you lose. | |
| May 25, 2018 at 13:49 | history | edited | quanty | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
added 195 characters in body
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| May 25, 2018 at 13:42 | history | answered | quanty | CC BY-SA 4.0 |