Timeline for True probability vs estimated probability
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
14 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
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| Aug 14, 2018 at 15:13 | comment | added | Glen_b | There's a distinction between a model of a situation and the situation itself. In the case of a coin we assume P(H)=1/2 not because people have tossed coins thousands of times and discovered them to give very close to fair results, but from symmetry considerations. Similarly, when drawing marbles from a bag we assume (again via symmetry considerations) that on any draw the remaining marbles are all equally likely to be drawn. These models (invocations of some kind of symmetry in these two cases) will be plausible idealizations of reality (we can improve the quality of these with care). | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 11:09 | answer | added | Tonca | timeline score: 1 | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 10:45 | vote | accept | user_anon | ||
| Aug 14, 2018 at 10:35 | history | edited | user_anon | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| Aug 14, 2018 at 9:57 | comment | added | user_anon | For the moment I thought that applying CWA en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closed-world_assumption on the sentence "One tosses a (fair) die." would tell me that P(heads)=0.5, but I doubt it now. | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 9:44 | answer | added | Fabian Werner | timeline score: -1 | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 9:43 | comment | added | Sebastian | Furthermore what do you mean with closed world assumptions? | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 9:40 | comment | added | user_anon | @0rangetree Now I understand what you meant. I cannot consider them as data. If I were to do the experiment 10 times and observe 4 blue and 6 red marbles, then THAT would be my Data. Thanks for pointing this out. | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 9:33 | comment | added | user_anon | So, the second example has nothing to do with maximum likelihood estimation? | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 9:27 | comment | added | Arnaud | In your examples, the writer wants you to consider that the true probabilities are known. In real life, probability is never known. There is no fair coin and the painting of the marbles have an unknown and very very very slight effect on the propensity you have to catch them. | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 9:20 | history | edited | user_anon | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
added 61 characters in body
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| Aug 14, 2018 at 8:56 | comment | added | user_anon | Yes. I was just trying to say that the 4 blue and 6 red marbles were my data. I mean I can consider them data, can't I? | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 8:52 | comment | added | Sebastian | So you know that the bag contains 4 blue and 6 des marbles AND your Data was BBBB RRRRRR ? | |
| Aug 14, 2018 at 8:36 | history | asked | user_anon | CC BY-SA 4.0 |