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May 13, 2019 at 5:23 vote accept Patrick Glettig
May 12, 2019 at 9:19 comment added IrishStat In summary, you would now NOT NEED an ARMA model or any differencing as the residuals FROM A causative model ARE approximately WHITE NOISE. The suggested causative model includes mean shifts and other temporal variables such as before and after 4 holidays ,day-of-the-week, month-of-the-year,. day-of-the-month , monday-after-a-holiday
May 12, 2019 at 6:53 comment added IrishStat essentially yes or simply include two indicator series (level shifts) as predictors. Detecting level shifts can sometimes (not in this case however) be done with the R program tsoutliers cran.r-project.org/web/packages/tsoutliers/tsoutliers.pdf or AUTOBOX ( which is available in R) and which I have helped to write. In general the technnique is called Intervention Detection docplayer.net/…
May 12, 2019 at 6:10 comment added Patrick Glettig Wow, thank you so much! There is plenty of interesting insights from this. I would like to ask two things for clarification: by demeaning the data, do you simply mean subtracting the average for periods in the 3 different levels? What technique can I use to discover the two model shifts?
May 11, 2019 at 20:27 history edited IrishStat CC BY-SA 4.0
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May 11, 2019 at 20:17 history answered IrishStat CC BY-SA 4.0