Skip to main content
deleted 132 characters in body
Source Link
Manuel
  • 1.7k
  • 14
  • 25

Since you do not give a model for the data I will describe one that has a similar look to your data and I belive it deals with the heteroscedasticity in a natural way.

Consider your observations $(X, Y)$ as a complex random variable such that $$ X + iY =Z e^{i (\theta + \varepsilon)}. $$

Where $Z$ and $\varepsilon$ are independendent real random variables with zero mean and finite variance and $\theta \in (-\pi/2 , \pi/2)$.

This model can be extended to include an unknown complex intercept which we omit for simplicity.

The following illustration shows a $\%95$ coverage region and a realization of 100 independet points with $\theta = -\pi/4$ and normaility for $Z$ and $\varepsilon$

The following illustration shows a <span class=$\%95$ coverage region " />

The idea of this model is that $\theta$ gives a line (red dashed in the figure) along which the process selects a point with $Z$ and then perturbates that point along the green lines by modifying it's phase by $\varepsilon$.

From the model definition we get that $$ \left. \begin{array}{1} Y = Z \sin (\theta + \varepsilon) \\ X = Z \cos (\theta + \varepsilon) \end{array} \right\} \implies Y = X \tan(\theta + \varepsilon) \implies \arctan(\frac{Y}{X}) = \theta +\varepsilon. $$ From a sample $(X_1, Y_1) \ldots (X_n,Y_n)$ we get the following estimation $$ \hat \theta = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k = 1}^n \arctan (\frac{Y_k}{X_k})$$

From a new observation $X_{new}$ we can construct a a new value $$Y_{new} = X_{new}\tan( \hat \theta )$$

It is important to note that the least squares estimatior derived from the model $$Y = X \beta + \varepsilon, $$ is different from the one we obtained.

This is made explicit in the following figure where the boxplot shows the error for estimating $\theta$ with $\hat \theta$ and $\arctan(\hat \beta)$ . It was obtained with 1000 replications under the same scenario as the first figure with $n = 40$ samples. The least squares estimator is clearly biased and has higher variability.

The second plot in the figure compares the densities of the Root Mean squared Prediction Error for both methods. After each of the 1000 estimation 1000 new points were independently generated. The blue line corresponds to the least squares method. It is clear that at least in this scenario the described method is superior also in prediction.

enter image description here

Finally note that taking logs to obtain a linear model is not so easy because $Y$ and $X$ can have different sign.

Since you do not give a model for the data I will describe one that has a similar look to your data and I belive it deals with the heteroscedasticity in a natural way.

Consider your observations $(X, Y)$ as a complex random variable such that $$ X + iY =Z e^{i (\theta + \varepsilon)}. $$

Where $Z$ and $\varepsilon$ are independendent real random variables with zero mean and finite variance and $\theta \in (-\pi/2 , \pi/2)$.

This model can be extended to include an unknown complex intercept which we omit for simplicity.

The following illustration shows a $\%95$ coverage region and a realization of 100 independet points with $\theta = -\pi/4$ and normaility for $Z$ and $\varepsilon$

The following illustration shows a <span class=$\%95$ coverage region " />

The idea of this model is that $\theta$ gives a line (red dashed in the figure) along which the process selects a point with $Z$ and then perturbates that point along the green lines by modifying it's phase by $\varepsilon$.

From the model definition we get that $$ \left. \begin{array}{1} Y = Z \sin (\theta + \varepsilon) \\ X = Z \cos (\theta + \varepsilon) \end{array} \right\} \implies Y = X \tan(\theta + \varepsilon) \implies \arctan(\frac{Y}{X}) = \theta +\varepsilon. $$ From a sample $(X_1, Y_1) \ldots (X_n,Y_n)$ we get the following estimation $$ \hat \theta = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k = 1}^n \arctan (\frac{Y_k}{X_k})$$

From a new observation $X_{new}$ we can construct a a new value $$Y_{new} = X_{new}\tan( \hat \theta )$$

It is important to note that the least squares estimatior derived from the model $$Y = X \beta + \varepsilon, $$ is different from the one we obtained.

This is made explicit in the following figure where the boxplot shows the error for estimating $\theta$ with $\hat \theta$ and $\arctan(\hat \beta)$ . It was obtained with 1000 replications under the same scenario as the first figure with $n = 40$ samples. The least squares estimator is clearly biased and has higher variability.

The second plot in the figure compares the densities of the Root Mean squared Prediction Error for both methods. After each of the 1000 estimation 1000 new points were independently generated. The blue line corresponds to the least squares method. It is clear that at least in this scenario the described method is superior also in prediction.

enter image description here

Finally note that taking logs to obtain a linear model is not so easy because $Y$ and $X$ can have different sign.

Since you do not give a model I will describe one that has a similar look to your data and I belive it deals with the heteroscedasticity in a natural way.

Consider your observations $(X, Y)$ as a complex random variable such that $$ X + iY =Z e^{i (\theta + \varepsilon)}. $$

Where $Z$ and $\varepsilon$ are independendent real random variables with zero mean and finite variance and $\theta \in (-\pi/2 , \pi/2)$.

This model can be extended to include an unknown complex intercept which we omit for simplicity.

The following illustration shows a $\%95$ coverage region and a realization of 100 independet points with $\theta = -\pi/4$ and normaility for $Z$ and $\varepsilon$

The following illustration shows a <span class=$\%95$ coverage region " />

The idea of this model is that $\theta$ gives a line (red dashed in the figure) along which the process selects a point with $Z$ and then perturbates that point along the green lines by modifying it's phase by $\varepsilon$.

From the model definition we get that $$ \left. \begin{array}{1} Y = Z \sin (\theta + \varepsilon) \\ X = Z \cos (\theta + \varepsilon) \end{array} \right\} \implies Y = X \tan(\theta + \varepsilon) \implies \arctan(\frac{Y}{X}) = \theta +\varepsilon. $$ From a sample $(X_1, Y_1) \ldots (X_n,Y_n)$ we get the following estimation $$ \hat \theta = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k = 1}^n \arctan (\frac{Y_k}{X_k})$$

From a new observation $X_{new}$ we can construct a a new value $$Y_{new} = X_{new}\tan( \hat \theta )$$

It is important to note that the least squares estimatior derived from the model $$Y = X \beta + \varepsilon, $$ is different from the one we obtained.

This is made explicit in the following figure where the boxplot shows the error for estimating $\theta$ with $\hat \theta$ and $\arctan(\hat \beta)$ . It was obtained with 1000 replications under the same scenario as the first figure with $n = 40$ samples. The least squares estimator is clearly biased and has higher variability.

The second plot in the figure compares the densities of the Root Mean squared Prediction Error for both methods. After each of the 1000 estimation 1000 new points were independently generated. The blue line corresponds to the least squares method. It is clear that at least in this scenario the described method is superior also in prediction.

enter image description here

deleted 1 character in body
Source Link
Manuel
  • 1.7k
  • 14
  • 25

Since you do not give a model for the data I will describe one that has a similar look to your data and I belive it deals with the heteroscedasticity in a natural way.

Consider your observations $(X, Y)$ as a complex random variable such that $$ X + iY =Z e^{i (\theta + \varepsilon)}. $$

Where $Z$ and $\varepsilon$ are independendent real random variables with zero mean and finite variance and $\theta \in (-\pi/2 , \pi/2)$.

This model can be extended to include an unknown complex intercept which we omit for simplicity.

The following illustration shows a $\%95$ coverage region and a realization of 100 independet points with $\theta = -\pi/4$ and normaility for $Z$ and $\varepsilon$

The following illustration shows a <span class=$\%95$ coverage region " />

The idea of this model is that $\theta$ gives a line (red dashed in the figure) along which the process selects a point with $Z$ and then perturbates that point along the green lines by modifying it's phase by $\varepsilon$.

From the model definition we get that $$ \left. \begin{array}{1} Y = Z \sin (\theta + \varepsilon) \\ X = Z \cos (\theta + \varepsilon) \end{array} \right\} \implies Y = X \tan(\theta + \varepsilon) \implies \arctan(\frac{Y}{X}) = \theta +\varepsilon. $$ From a sample $(X_1, Y_1) \ldots (X_n,Y_n)$ we get the following estimation $$ \hat \theta = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k = 1}^n \arctan (\frac{Y_k}{X_k})$$

From a new observation $X_{new}$ we can construct a a new value $$Y_{new} = X_{new}\tan( \hat \theta )$$

It is important to note that the least squares estimatior derived from the model $$Y = X \beta + \varepsilon, $$ is different from the one we obtained.

This is made explicit in the following figure where the boxplot shows the error for estimating $\theta$ with $\hat \theta$ and $\arctan(\hat \beta)$ . It was obtained with 1000 replications under the same scenario as the first figure with $n = 40$ samples. The least squares estimator is clearly biased and has higher variability.

The second plot in the figure compares the densities of the Root Mean squared Prediction Error for both methods. After each of the 1000 estimation 1000 new points wherewere independently generated. The blue line corresponds to the least squares method. It is clear that at least in this scenario the described method is superior also in prediction.

enter image description here

Finally note that taking logs to obtain a linear model is not so easy because $Y$ and $X$ can have different sign.

Since you do not give a model for the data I will describe one that has a similar look to your data and I belive it deals with the heteroscedasticity in a natural way.

Consider your observations $(X, Y)$ as a complex random variable such that $$ X + iY =Z e^{i (\theta + \varepsilon)}. $$

Where $Z$ and $\varepsilon$ are independendent real random variables with zero mean and finite variance and $\theta \in (-\pi/2 , \pi/2)$.

This model can be extended to include an unknown complex intercept which we omit for simplicity.

The following illustration shows a $\%95$ coverage region and a realization of 100 independet points with $\theta = -\pi/4$ and normaility for $Z$ and $\varepsilon$

The following illustration shows a <span class=$\%95$ coverage region " />

The idea of this model is that $\theta$ gives a line (red dashed in the figure) along which the process selects a point with $Z$ and then perturbates that point along the green lines by modifying it's phase by $\varepsilon$.

From the model definition we get that $$ \left. \begin{array}{1} Y = Z \sin (\theta + \varepsilon) \\ X = Z \cos (\theta + \varepsilon) \end{array} \right\} \implies Y = X \tan(\theta + \varepsilon) \implies \arctan(\frac{Y}{X}) = \theta +\varepsilon. $$ From a sample $(X_1, Y_1) \ldots (X_n,Y_n)$ we get the following estimation $$ \hat \theta = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k = 1}^n \arctan (\frac{Y_k}{X_k})$$

From a new observation $X_{new}$ we can construct a a new value $$Y_{new} = X_{new}\tan( \hat \theta )$$

It is important to note that the least squares estimatior derived from the model $$Y = X \beta + \varepsilon, $$ is different from the one we obtained.

This is made explicit in the following figure where the boxplot shows the error for estimating $\theta$ with $\hat \theta$ and $\arctan(\hat \beta)$ . It was obtained with 1000 replications under the same scenario as the first figure with $n = 40$ samples. The least squares estimator is clearly biased and has higher variability.

The second plot in the figure compares the densities of the Root Mean squared Prediction Error for both methods. After each of the 1000 estimation 1000 new points where independently generated. The blue line corresponds to the least squares method. It is clear that at least in this scenario the described method is superior also in prediction.

enter image description here

Finally note that taking logs to obtain a linear model is not so easy because $Y$ and $X$ can have different sign.

Since you do not give a model for the data I will describe one that has a similar look to your data and I belive it deals with the heteroscedasticity in a natural way.

Consider your observations $(X, Y)$ as a complex random variable such that $$ X + iY =Z e^{i (\theta + \varepsilon)}. $$

Where $Z$ and $\varepsilon$ are independendent real random variables with zero mean and finite variance and $\theta \in (-\pi/2 , \pi/2)$.

This model can be extended to include an unknown complex intercept which we omit for simplicity.

The following illustration shows a $\%95$ coverage region and a realization of 100 independet points with $\theta = -\pi/4$ and normaility for $Z$ and $\varepsilon$

The following illustration shows a <span class=$\%95$ coverage region " />

The idea of this model is that $\theta$ gives a line (red dashed in the figure) along which the process selects a point with $Z$ and then perturbates that point along the green lines by modifying it's phase by $\varepsilon$.

From the model definition we get that $$ \left. \begin{array}{1} Y = Z \sin (\theta + \varepsilon) \\ X = Z \cos (\theta + \varepsilon) \end{array} \right\} \implies Y = X \tan(\theta + \varepsilon) \implies \arctan(\frac{Y}{X}) = \theta +\varepsilon. $$ From a sample $(X_1, Y_1) \ldots (X_n,Y_n)$ we get the following estimation $$ \hat \theta = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k = 1}^n \arctan (\frac{Y_k}{X_k})$$

From a new observation $X_{new}$ we can construct a a new value $$Y_{new} = X_{new}\tan( \hat \theta )$$

It is important to note that the least squares estimatior derived from the model $$Y = X \beta + \varepsilon, $$ is different from the one we obtained.

This is made explicit in the following figure where the boxplot shows the error for estimating $\theta$ with $\hat \theta$ and $\arctan(\hat \beta)$ . It was obtained with 1000 replications under the same scenario as the first figure with $n = 40$ samples. The least squares estimator is clearly biased and has higher variability.

The second plot in the figure compares the densities of the Root Mean squared Prediction Error for both methods. After each of the 1000 estimation 1000 new points were independently generated. The blue line corresponds to the least squares method. It is clear that at least in this scenario the described method is superior also in prediction.

enter image description here

Finally note that taking logs to obtain a linear model is not so easy because $Y$ and $X$ can have different sign.

deleted 1 character in body
Source Link
Manuel
  • 1.7k
  • 14
  • 25

Since you do not give a model for the data I will describe one that has a similar look to your data and I belive it deals with the heteroscedasticity in a natural way.

Consider your observations $(X, Y)$ as a complex random variable such that $$ X + iY =Z e^{i (\theta + \varepsilon)}. $$

Where $Z$ and $\varepsilon$ are independendent real random variables with zero mean and finite variance and $\theta \in (-\pi/2 , \pi/2)$.

This model can be extended to include an unknown complex intercept which we omit for simplicity.

The following illustration shows a $\%95$ coverage region and a realization of 100 independet points with $\theta = -\pi/4$ and normaility for $Z$ and $\varepsilon$

The following illustration shows a <span class=$\%95$ coverage region " />

The idea of this model is that $\theta$ gives a line (red dashed in the figure) along which the process selects a point with $Z$ and then perturbates that point along the green lines by modifying it's phase by $\varepsilon$.

From the model definition we get that $$ \left. \begin{array}{1} Y = Z \sin (\theta + \varepsilon) \\ X = Z \cos (\theta + \varepsilon) \end{array} \right\} \implies Y = X \tan(\theta + \varepsilon) \implies \arctan(\frac{Y}{X}) = \theta +\varepsilon. $$ From a sample $(X_1, Y_1) \ldots (X_n,Y_n)$ we get the following estimation $$ \hat \theta = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k = 1}^n \arctan (\frac{Y_k}{X_k})$$

From a new observation $X_{new}$ we can construct a a new value $$Y_{new} = X_{new}\tan( \hat \theta )$$

It is important to note that the least squares estimatior derived from the model $$Y = X \beta + \varepsilon, $$ is different from the one we obtained.

This is made explicit in the following figure where the boxplot shows the error for estimating $\theta$ with $\hat \theta$ and $\arctan(\hat \beta)$ . It was obtained with 1000 replications under the same scenario as the first figure with $n = 40$ samples. The least squares estimator is clearly biased and has higher variability.

The second plot in the figure compares the densities of the Root Mean squared Prediction Error for both methods. After each of the 1000 estimation 1000 new points where independently generated. The blue line corresponds to the least squares method. It is clear that at least in this scenario the described method is superior also in prediction.

enter image description here

Finally note that taking logs to obtain a linear model is not so easy because $Y$ and $X$ can have different signssign.

Since you do not give a model for the data I will describe one that has a similar look to your data and I belive it deals with the heteroscedasticity in a natural way.

Consider your observations $(X, Y)$ as a complex random variable such that $$ X + iY =Z e^{i (\theta + \varepsilon)}. $$

Where $Z$ and $\varepsilon$ are independendent real random variables with zero mean and finite variance and $\theta \in (-\pi/2 , \pi/2)$.

This model can be extended to include an unknown complex intercept which we omit for simplicity.

The following illustration shows a $\%95$ coverage region and a realization of 100 independet points with $\theta = -\pi/4$ and normaility for $Z$ and $\varepsilon$

The following illustration shows a <span class=$\%95$ coverage region " />

The idea of this model is that $\theta$ gives a line (red dashed in the figure) along which the process selects a point with $Z$ and then perturbates that point along the green lines by modifying it's phase by $\varepsilon$.

From the model definition we get that $$ \left. \begin{array}{1} Y = Z \sin (\theta + \varepsilon) \\ X = Z \cos (\theta + \varepsilon) \end{array} \right\} \implies Y = X \tan(\theta + \varepsilon) \implies \arctan(\frac{Y}{X}) = \theta +\varepsilon. $$ From a sample $(X_1, Y_1) \ldots (X_n,Y_n)$ we get the following estimation $$ \hat \theta = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k = 1}^n \arctan (\frac{Y_k}{X_k})$$

From a new observation $X_{new}$ we can construct a a new value $$Y_{new} = X_{new}\tan( \hat \theta )$$

It is important to note that the least squares estimatior derived from the model $$Y = X \beta + \varepsilon, $$ is different from the one we obtained.

This is made explicit in the following figure where the boxplot shows the error for estimating $\theta$ with $\hat \theta$ and $\arctan(\hat \beta)$ . It was obtained with 1000 replications under the same scenario as the first figure with $n = 40$ samples. The least squares estimator is clearly biased and has higher variability.

The second plot in the figure compares the densities of the Root Mean squared Prediction Error for both methods. After each of the 1000 estimation 1000 new points where independently generated. The blue line corresponds to the least squares method. It is clear that at least in this scenario the described method is superior also in prediction.

enter image description here

Finally note that taking logs to obtain a linear model is not so easy because $Y$ and $X$ can have different signs.

Since you do not give a model for the data I will describe one that has a similar look to your data and I belive it deals with the heteroscedasticity in a natural way.

Consider your observations $(X, Y)$ as a complex random variable such that $$ X + iY =Z e^{i (\theta + \varepsilon)}. $$

Where $Z$ and $\varepsilon$ are independendent real random variables with zero mean and finite variance and $\theta \in (-\pi/2 , \pi/2)$.

This model can be extended to include an unknown complex intercept which we omit for simplicity.

The following illustration shows a $\%95$ coverage region and a realization of 100 independet points with $\theta = -\pi/4$ and normaility for $Z$ and $\varepsilon$

The following illustration shows a <span class=$\%95$ coverage region " />

The idea of this model is that $\theta$ gives a line (red dashed in the figure) along which the process selects a point with $Z$ and then perturbates that point along the green lines by modifying it's phase by $\varepsilon$.

From the model definition we get that $$ \left. \begin{array}{1} Y = Z \sin (\theta + \varepsilon) \\ X = Z \cos (\theta + \varepsilon) \end{array} \right\} \implies Y = X \tan(\theta + \varepsilon) \implies \arctan(\frac{Y}{X}) = \theta +\varepsilon. $$ From a sample $(X_1, Y_1) \ldots (X_n,Y_n)$ we get the following estimation $$ \hat \theta = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k = 1}^n \arctan (\frac{Y_k}{X_k})$$

From a new observation $X_{new}$ we can construct a a new value $$Y_{new} = X_{new}\tan( \hat \theta )$$

It is important to note that the least squares estimatior derived from the model $$Y = X \beta + \varepsilon, $$ is different from the one we obtained.

This is made explicit in the following figure where the boxplot shows the error for estimating $\theta$ with $\hat \theta$ and $\arctan(\hat \beta)$ . It was obtained with 1000 replications under the same scenario as the first figure with $n = 40$ samples. The least squares estimator is clearly biased and has higher variability.

The second plot in the figure compares the densities of the Root Mean squared Prediction Error for both methods. After each of the 1000 estimation 1000 new points where independently generated. The blue line corresponds to the least squares method. It is clear that at least in this scenario the described method is superior also in prediction.

enter image description here

Finally note that taking logs to obtain a linear model is not so easy because $Y$ and $X$ can have different sign.

added 275 characters in body
Source Link
Manuel
  • 1.7k
  • 14
  • 25
Loading
added 37 characters in body
Source Link
Manuel
  • 1.7k
  • 14
  • 25
Loading
added 132 characters in body
Source Link
Manuel
  • 1.7k
  • 14
  • 25
Loading
Source Link
Manuel
  • 1.7k
  • 14
  • 25
Loading