Timeline for Poker hand: probability of a straight or a straight flush
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
10 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2020 at 0:20 | vote | accept | StatsSorceress | ||
| Jan 26, 2020 at 23:39 | comment | added | StatsSorceress | Good reference! I had a look, and I think I understand the idea that it doesn't matter when the cards were dealt or who they were dealt to. But I'm stuck still because it should matter that there are actually only 45 cards left in the deck at the beginning of dealing the last two cards, not 47. Yet the suggested answer below implies that my answer is correct. So should it be 8/45 + 8/44 ~ 0.3596? | |
| Jan 26, 2020 at 23:15 | comment | added | whuber♦ | The probabilities depend only on the information you have; they do not use any information about where the rest of the cards might be physically located. You can put them all in the deck or all in your opponent's hands; it doesn't matter. It can be helpful to consult a discussion of the axioms of probability: look for any reference to time or even physical manifestation of a population or process: you won't find any. | |
| Jan 26, 2020 at 23:10 | answer | added | Sophie Swett | timeline score: 0 | |
| Jan 26, 2020 at 23:06 | comment | added | StatsSorceress | Thank you, but I'm still missing something. Why don't the probabilities care how the deal is made? Doesn't it matter whether, say, a 4, is already on the table somewhere? | |
| Jan 26, 2020 at 22:57 | comment | added | whuber♦ | Think of it this way: the probabilities don't care how the deal is made, so first deal your hand, then deal the two common cards, then deal the flop (keep the cards upside down if you like), and finally deal all the other hands. Now it is physically obvious that the flop does not depend on what is in your opponents' hands; it doesn't even depend on whether you have any opponents at all. The lesson is that the probabilities only depend on the information you have. | |
| Jan 26, 2020 at 22:14 | comment | added | StatsSorceress | @whuber Thanks for the hint! I've taken a stab at it, but I still think I'm wrong. Could you please have a look? | |
| Jan 26, 2020 at 22:13 | history | edited | StatsSorceress | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
answering a comment
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| Jan 25, 2020 at 18:45 | comment | added | whuber♦ | Hint: Try to explain why you condition on what your opponent might have. In particular, can you point to how that differs from the situation where there is no opponent but the cards you have observed are exactly the same as described? | |
| Jan 25, 2020 at 17:26 | history | asked | StatsSorceress | CC BY-SA 4.0 |