Timeline for A chart of daily cases of COVID-19 in a Russian region looks suspiciously level to me - is this so from the statistics viewpoint?
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
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| May 25, 2020 at 7:15 | comment | added | Stephan Kolassa | Somewhat related: Kobak, Shpilkin & Pshenichnikov, "Statistical fingerprints of electoral fraud?" Significance 13(4), 20-23, 2016, also on Russian data. | |
| May 24, 2020 at 16:44 | history | protected | whuber♦ | ||
| May 23, 2020 at 20:04 | comment | added | Loren Pechtel | @steveo'america We saw that in China for a while--case growth was consistent for days, one bend upwards in the middle. Obviously it reflected their ability to test, not the disease. | |
| May 23, 2020 at 18:16 | vote | accept | CopperKettle | ||
| May 23, 2020 at 7:32 | history | edited | CopperKettle | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 22, 2020 at 15:05 | comment | added | David | Not all regions have suspiciously flat data, see china | |
| May 22, 2020 at 14:31 | comment | added | David | @CopperKettle Is this what "flattening the curve" means? :) | |
| May 22, 2020 at 14:29 | comment | added | David | @JDL Statistics of coronavirus Covid-19 infections in the Krasnodar Krai (territory); graph of diagnosed infections by date; number of confirmed cases per day; zero values indicate lack of data. | |
| May 22, 2020 at 11:19 | answer | added | Christian Hennig | timeline score: 24 | |
| May 22, 2020 at 9:34 | answer | added | alexeymosco | timeline score: 5 | |
| May 22, 2020 at 7:26 | comment | added | JDL | Could someone who knows Russian post a translation of the words on the graphs? | |
| May 21, 2020 at 23:12 | comment | added | Russell McMahon | For interest - here is the Worldometers version of the data. | |
| May 21, 2020 at 22:36 | comment | added | Ben | @Arkasal: That is some very Soviet data. | |
| May 21, 2020 at 22:27 | answer | added | Sextus Empiricus | timeline score: 27 | |
| May 21, 2020 at 19:54 | history | became hot network question | |||
| May 21, 2020 at 19:26 | answer | added | Aksakal | timeline score: 18 | |
| May 21, 2020 at 19:14 | comment | added | Aksakal | Russians must have a "plan", maybe it's 100 new cases daily, so they're hitting it perfectly! | |
| May 21, 2020 at 18:00 | history | tweeted | twitter.com/StackStats/status/1263530062219038720 | ||
| May 21, 2020 at 17:07 | comment | added | Sextus Empiricus | @steveo'america probably it will be more than 100 tests per day, or otherwise nearly all the tested people would have the virus, which you do not see elsewhere. Say, it could be 300 per day, and 1/3 of them are positive. In that case the mean of positive tests per day is 100 and the variance is 66.6 (and standard deviation about 8). That is one way how you can have the underdispersion but it is still not much different from the standard deviation of 10 for a Poisson distribution. Of course there can be more effects that cause underdispersion (e.g. the 'source' of patients is heterogeneous). | |
| May 21, 2020 at 16:49 | comment | added | steveo'america | Maybe they can only perform 100 tests a day? (This is somewhat in jest, as the proportion of confirmed cases would be too high. However, certain regions do have testing capacity constraints. That was the case even here in the San Francisco area.) | |
| May 21, 2020 at 15:14 | comment | added | ttnphns | @SextusEmpiricus, that can be the case. However, there also can be the jam-release effect of the testing "traffic" or even of applications for the testing (sick people who were on lockdown in April massively applied in clinics from the start of May), etc. | |
| May 21, 2020 at 15:08 | history | edited | ttnphns | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 21, 2020 at 14:58 | comment | added | ttnphns | The fuller red graph is telltale. However, just one note: the bars show the "number of confirmed cases" per day. Well, "confirmed" is not quite the same as "occured" or even "elicited", it is more mediated event than those. One of possible mediations can be some sort of unfair manipulation. But other variants are also possible, for example factors concerning availability and scheduling of virus diagnostic procedures. These factors could as well have changed between April and May in the region. As "confirmed" is less immediate than (approximately Poissonian) "emerged" it could affect the curve. | |
| May 21, 2020 at 14:29 | history | edited | CopperKettle | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 21, 2020 at 13:58 | comment | added | ttnphns | @gung-ReinstateMonica, I did not create that tag. It existed on the site. | |
| May 21, 2020 at 13:56 | comment | added | gung - Reinstate Monica |
@ttnphns, it's fine to create a new tag (ie, [manipulation-detection]), but please create at least an excerpt for it.
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| May 21, 2020 at 13:52 | history | edited | ttnphns | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 21, 2020 at 13:27 | history | edited | CopperKettle | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 21, 2020 at 13:23 | answer | added | EngrStudent | timeline score: 12 | |
| May 21, 2020 at 13:23 | comment | added | gung - Reinstate Monica | @CopperKettle, Your listed data sum to 1903, if there have been a total of 2974, then there were 1071 prior to April 29. Is that right? | |
| May 21, 2020 at 13:22 | answer | added | whuber♦ | timeline score: 71 | |
| May 21, 2020 at 13:17 | comment | added | gung - Reinstate Monica | @ttnphns, an "amateur in statistics" may not be able to clearly state what they think looks weird in technical terms. When I look at it, the data certainly look underdispersed to me. | |
| May 21, 2020 at 13:16 | comment | added | CopperKettle | @ttnphns - by "suspicious" I mean "data tampered or forged on purpose to produce an abnormally level curve". | |
| May 21, 2020 at 13:12 | history | edited | CopperKettle | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 21, 2020 at 13:07 | history | edited | CopperKettle | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 21, 2020 at 13:01 | history | edited | CopperKettle | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 21, 2020 at 12:44 | history | edited | CopperKettle | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 21, 2020 at 12:43 | history | reopened | gung - Reinstate Monica | ||
| May 21, 2020 at 12:42 | comment | added | gung - Reinstate Monica | @Tim, I asked CopperKettle to post this here. Even if I hadn't, I think there are meaningful statistical issues that can be discussed here, not just opinions. | |
| May 21, 2020 at 12:15 | review | Reopen votes | |||
| May 21, 2020 at 12:46 | |||||
| May 21, 2020 at 11:59 | history | edited | CopperKettle | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
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| May 21, 2020 at 11:58 | history | closed | Tim | Opinion-based | |
| May 21, 2020 at 11:53 | history | asked | CopperKettle | CC BY-SA 4.0 |