The model you constructed is the same as the AR model. It is the special case of a more general ARIMA model from the time series analysis. I give you the Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_model. The AR model is well established already and the various aspects of the model are researched including the forecasting.

The model you constructed is the same as the AR model. It is the special case of a more general ARIMA model from the time series analysis. I give you the Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_model. The AR model is well established already and the various aspects of the model have been researched including the forecasting.