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Oct 9, 2021 at 14:14 comment added kjetil b halvorsen If you found this answer helpful, then please consider upvoting and/or accepting it.
Sep 21, 2021 at 1:51 comment added simohayha Really good advice. Thanks Björn.
Sep 20, 2021 at 12:57 comment added Björn In the case of a continuous numeric value in your case, the smoothing parameter of the LOESS curve fulfills a similar role. The smoothing parameter (and x in the example above) is chosen based on what value performs well in predicting data not seen during training (i.e. you try different values via cross-validation).
Sep 20, 2021 at 12:56 comment added Björn For categories one assigns each category a numeric value like this: (overall avg) * x / ( x + (# of records for category)) + (avg. outcome for the category) * (# of records for category) / ( x + (# of records for category)). I.e. it's a weighted avg. of the category avg. & overall avg. (as if there were an extra x observations in the category with value of overall mean). E.g. if you just used the target avg., then if the outcome is just 0 or 1 and you see a record with a category numerically represented as 0 or 1, you would otherwise know the answer for the record (while this way you don't).
Sep 20, 2021 at 12:46 comment added simohayha Thanks Björn. Could you please provide more info regarding "with various ideas like shrinking towards the mean to help avoid overfitting/target leakage"? As for the suitable splines, maybe I will try to find a spline with a monotonic trend (not sure if there is only one or not).
Sep 20, 2021 at 7:55 history answered Björn CC BY-SA 4.0