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Added more information (another point estimate and a range) from source paper
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jserv
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I have been asked to calculate a 95% confidence interval based on the following paper: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26107/w26107.pdf

The question reads:

Suppose rainfall in the Bodélé Depression increases by 5 mm. Give a 95% confidence interval for the reduction in PM2.5 concentration in West Africa that you would expect to see in this setting."

The closest relevant piece of information I can find in the paper is on page 11:

Using our historical data, we then estimate that a 1 mm increase in rainfall in the Bodélé during the Harmattan season reduces PM2.5 on average in West Africa by 0.71μg/m³.

The closest I can get to an estimate of this answer is that if every 1mm increase in rainfall causes a 0.71μg/m³ decrease in PM2.5 concentration, then 5 * 0.71 = 3.55μg/m³.

What's not clear to me is how I am meant to find a 95% CI for this. My understanding is that confidence intervals are calculated from the standard deviation and standard error of the original dataset, which I do not have access to. Am I missing something, here?

Edit: Page 24 also mentions:

We estimate that 1 millimeter of additional rainfall in the Bodele reduces PM2.5 in our study locations by an average of 1.2 μg/m3 and therefore our estimate of the coefficient on the rainfall instrument ranges from -1.5 to -2.

This provides an average and a range, but it's still not clear to me how I could work out a confidence interval based on any information in the paper without the original dataset.

I have been asked to calculate a 95% confidence interval based on the following paper: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26107/w26107.pdf

The question reads:

Suppose rainfall in the Bodélé Depression increases by 5 mm. Give a 95% confidence interval for the reduction in PM2.5 concentration in West Africa that you would expect to see in this setting."

The closest relevant piece of information I can find in the paper is on page 11:

Using our historical data, we then estimate that a 1 mm increase in rainfall in the Bodélé during the Harmattan season reduces PM2.5 on average in West Africa by 0.71μg/m³.

The closest I can get to an estimate of this answer is that if every 1mm increase in rainfall causes a 0.71μg/m³ decrease in PM2.5 concentration, then 5 * 0.71 = 3.55μg/m³.

What's not clear to me is how I am meant to find a 95% CI for this. My understanding is that confidence intervals are calculated from the standard deviation and standard error of the original dataset, which I do not have access to. Am I missing something, here?

I have been asked to calculate a 95% confidence interval based on the following paper: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26107/w26107.pdf

The question reads:

Suppose rainfall in the Bodélé Depression increases by 5 mm. Give a 95% confidence interval for the reduction in PM2.5 concentration in West Africa that you would expect to see in this setting."

The closest relevant piece of information I can find in the paper is on page 11:

Using our historical data, we then estimate that a 1 mm increase in rainfall in the Bodélé during the Harmattan season reduces PM2.5 on average in West Africa by 0.71μg/m³.

The closest I can get to an estimate of this answer is that if every 1mm increase in rainfall causes a 0.71μg/m³ decrease in PM2.5 concentration, then 5 * 0.71 = 3.55μg/m³.

What's not clear to me is how I am meant to find a 95% CI for this. My understanding is that confidence intervals are calculated from the standard deviation and standard error of the original dataset, which I do not have access to. Am I missing something, here?

Edit: Page 24 also mentions:

We estimate that 1 millimeter of additional rainfall in the Bodele reduces PM2.5 in our study locations by an average of 1.2 μg/m3 and therefore our estimate of the coefficient on the rainfall instrument ranges from -1.5 to -2.

This provides an average and a range, but it's still not clear to me how I could work out a confidence interval based on any information in the paper without the original dataset.

Source Link
jserv
jserv
  • 55
  • 4

Calculating a 95% confidence interval without the original dataset

I have been asked to calculate a 95% confidence interval based on the following paper: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26107/w26107.pdf

The question reads:

Suppose rainfall in the Bodélé Depression increases by 5 mm. Give a 95% confidence interval for the reduction in PM2.5 concentration in West Africa that you would expect to see in this setting."

The closest relevant piece of information I can find in the paper is on page 11:

Using our historical data, we then estimate that a 1 mm increase in rainfall in the Bodélé during the Harmattan season reduces PM2.5 on average in West Africa by 0.71μg/m³.

The closest I can get to an estimate of this answer is that if every 1mm increase in rainfall causes a 0.71μg/m³ decrease in PM2.5 concentration, then 5 * 0.71 = 3.55μg/m³.

What's not clear to me is how I am meant to find a 95% CI for this. My understanding is that confidence intervals are calculated from the standard deviation and standard error of the original dataset, which I do not have access to. Am I missing something, here?