A possible alternative is to identify and form an efficient model generating a set of iid residuals. Generate a forecast using the model and then use the distribution of residuals as the basis of the montecarlo creating limits that are not presumptively based upon a distributional assumption. Use this empirical dostribution to offset the expected value. This method allows the identification and incorporation of possible pulses and the option to incorporate (allow for  ) future pulses into the forcast distribution. This is the suggested approach of Prpf. Sam Savage as an extension to his book "The Flaw of Averages".

A possible alternative is to identify and form an efficient model generating a set of iid residuals. Generate a forecast using the model and then use the distribution of residuals as the basis of the montecarlo creating limits that are not presumptively based upon a distributional assumption. Use this empirical distribution to offset the expected value. This method allows the identification and incorporation of possible unusual pulses and the option to incorporate (allow for) predicted pulses into the forecast distribution. This is the suggested approach of Prpf. Sam Savage as an extension to his book "The Flaw of Averages".

A possible alternative which leads generally to ARMAX mldeling is to identify and form an efficient model generating a set of iid residuals. Generate a forecast using the model and then use the distribution of residuals as the basis of the montecarlo creating limits that are not presumptively based upon a distributional assumption. Use this empirical dostribution to offset the expected value. This method allows the identification and incorporation of possible pulses and the option to incorporate (allow for ) future pulses into the forcast distribution. This is the suggested approach of Prpf. Sam Savage as an extension to his book "The Flaw of Averages".

A possible alternative is to identify and form an efficient model generating a set of iid residuals. Generate a forecast using the model and then use the distribution of residuals as the basis of the montecarlo creating limits that are not presumptively based upon a distributional assumption. Use this empirical dostribution to offset the expected value. This method allows the identification and incorporation of possible pulses and the option to incorporate (allow for ) future pulses into the forcast distribution. This is the suggested approach of Prpf. Sam Savage as an extension to his book "The Flaw of Averages".