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Jan 31 at 14:38 history edited cambridgecircus CC BY-SA 4.0
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Jan 31 at 14:08 comment added cambridgecircus @GaryS no worries, if this answer has helped, please mark it as answered. Regarding your follow-on comment, yes it's possible to have $T$ and $F$ as RVs themselves. However I'm not too sure what yo mean by $Tp$ and $F(1-p)$ being negatively correlated, and the algebra simplyfing. Also I'm not sure what you mean by treating $T$,$F$ as RVs but parameters elsewhere; the point is that $\hat{p}$ will be a compound probability distribution parameterised by $T$ and $F$, which are RVs themselves.
Jan 30 at 19:00 comment added Gary S The comments on the original post raise an interesting question. Suppose $T$ and $F$ as random variables with known probabilities, such as $T=p(Y=1|X=1)$, where $X$ is the patient's true state, disease or not. The $Var(Y_i)$ is the variance of the sum of two (negatively) correlated terms: $Tp$ and $F(1-p)$. The algebra simplifies nicely. However, can we treat $T$ and $F$ as random variables when addressing the variance of $Y_i$ but treat them as parameters elsewhere in the equation for $\hat{p}$?
Jan 30 at 18:46 comment added Gary S Thanks, cambridgecircus for you clear and most helpful answer, which has helped me learn.
Jan 29 at 1:40 history edited cambridgecircus CC BY-SA 4.0
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Jan 28 at 15:30 history edited cambridgecircus CC BY-SA 4.0
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Jan 28 at 15:21 history edited cambridgecircus CC BY-SA 4.0
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Jan 28 at 15:14 history edited cambridgecircus CC BY-SA 4.0
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Jan 28 at 15:05 history edited cambridgecircus CC BY-SA 4.0
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Jan 28 at 14:53 review First answers
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Jan 28 at 14:51 history edited cambridgecircus CC BY-SA 4.0
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S Jan 28 at 14:39 review First answers
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S Jan 28 at 14:39 history answered cambridgecircus CC BY-SA 4.0