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May 9 at 19:03 history bounty ended CommunityBot
May 5 at 17:56 vote accept Trisoloriansunscreen
May 5 at 0:08 comment added Feri @Trisoloriansunscreen My answer is written from a Bayesian perspective, assumes uncertainty about $\pi$, and admits $Pr(X_2=b|X_1=b)\neq Pr(X_2=b)$ in the general case.
May 4 at 8:25 comment added Trisoloriansunscreen Thank you @Feri. Do you agree that if $\pi$ is treated as a random variable, then $p(X_2 = b \mid X_1 = b) = p(X_2 = b \mid \pi =1) p(\pi = 1 \mid X_1 = b) + p(X_2 = b \mid pi = 0) p(\pi=0 \mid X_1 = b) = 1$, which may be unequal to $p(X_2 = b) = q$, and hence only conditional independence holds? To me, it seems that you (and @whuber) are answering from a frequentist perspective, assuming there is no uncertainty about $\pi$.
May 3 at 21:38 history answered Feri CC BY-SA 4.0