Timeline for Applying Bayesian probability to a generalized Monty Hall problem
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
9 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28 at 23:49 | history | became hot network question | |||
| Jun 28 at 21:12 | vote | accept | Mikayla Eckel Cifrese | ||
| Jun 28 at 20:59 | comment | added | Graham Bornholt | Once the contestant selects a door, and the presenter opens one of the other doors, then at that point the contestant is entitled to have 33% confidence in her initial choice and 67% confidence that the car is behind the remaining door (if she understands the structure of the game). | |
| Jun 28 at 20:37 | comment | added | Graham Bornholt | So for this contestant the remaining unselected door will have a 2/3 probability of being the correct door, (independently of whether or not the contestant knows that the presenter always will open a door with a goat behind it). | |
| Jun 28 at 20:36 | comment | added | Graham Bornholt | Thought I should mention the frequentist solution to the Monty Hall problem as this clarifies what the structure of the problem implies (in contrast to what the contestant knows). Prior to choosing a door, a contestant who intends to randomly select a door has 1/3 probability of choosing the right door and 2/3 chance that the correct door is one of the other 2 doors. Of these 2 doors, the presenter will always open 1 door with a goat behind it. | |
| Jun 28 at 16:21 | comment | added | Mikayla Eckel Cifrese | @mlofton, so you're saying the key is that the contestant ALSO knows, ahead of time, that Monty is always going to open a door with a goat behind it? So, it is the same, mathematically, as if Monty didn't know (or the contestant didn't know Money knows), but then they get the additional information that the open door has a goat behind it? | |
| Jun 28 at 16:09 | answer | added | jbowman | timeline score: 5 | |
| Jun 28 at 16:02 | comment | added | mlofton | I think your understanding issue is that it's not "regardless of how that came to happen". The key point is that Monty knows where the goat is, so he opens that door. So, there's no new information when he opens that door. If the goat was behind the other door, he would have opened that one instead. Stlll, no new information in that case either. | |
| Jun 28 at 15:43 | history | asked | Mikayla Eckel Cifrese | CC BY-SA 4.0 |