Timeline for % chance, when the success rate goes up with every failure
Current License: CC BY-SA 3.0
5 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
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| Aug 28, 2013 at 22:25 | comment | added | Ariel | @whuber I now understand why the two numbers were different - they answer different things. (I wrote a quick program to just try many rolls and see, and both of your numbers match exactly.) But can you explain how you calculated your numbers? | |
| Aug 28, 2013 at 21:48 | comment | added | Ariel | @whuber This is different from what you answered in a comment to the question (where you had a number between 4 and 5, here it's between 5 and 6). Could you clarify? (And post as an answer.) | |
| Aug 28, 2013 at 20:53 | review | First posts | |||
| Aug 28, 2013 at 20:54 | |||||
| Aug 28, 2013 at 20:51 | comment | added | whuber♦ | +1--but I believe you need 20 states for this MC (accounting for the conditions prior to the first, second, ..., 20th rolls). The expected number of mouse clicks per success is $\frac{3387894135040576041}{640000000000000000}\approx 5.29358.$ | |
| Aug 28, 2013 at 20:34 | history | answered | guest | CC BY-SA 3.0 |