I'm looking for large-deviations style results for cosine of two independent samples drawn from $\mathcal N(0,\Sigma)$ .
IE, $$q = \frac{\langle X,Y\rangle}{\|X\|\|Y\|}$$
More specifically, are there any interesting bounds on the probability of this value being large in terms of properties of $\mathcal \Sigma$ ? Intuitively it seems this value should be small when $\Sigma$ has small condition number.
The closest thing I found was this question Moment generating function of the inner product of two gaussian random vectors which derives the moment generating function, but would take some work to turn that into a bound.
Also there's Concentration results for inner products of two independent random gaussian vectors, but the answer looks at special case of diagonal $\Sigma$
Any suggestions or references appreciated!
Update Feb 26
I found the following inequality in Sanjeev Arora's CS 521 lecture notes (page 3)
$$P\left[|\cos(\theta_{a,b})| > \sqrt{\frac{\log c}{n}}\right] < \frac{1}{c}$$ where $a,b$ are sampled uniformly from $\{-1,1\}^n$
So from this perhaps one could argue that if $\Sigma$ is extremely badly conditioned, some eigenvalues are close to 0, and we are essentially sampling from lower dimensional space. Improving condition number of $\Sigma$ would increase effective dimensionality $n$, and the cosine shrinks as $\frac{1}{\sqrt{n}}$