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I have a question on the definition of a random variable. I have read the tickets in a box interpretation here and here, which helped me immensely, but I have some doubts for the case in which the population is infinite. In particular, I am confused on what is the relation among infinite population-continuous/discrete random variables-measurability-zero probability events.

Following the discussion in the linked answer, suppose that my population $\Omega$ is an infinite list of paper slips (a generic paper slip is denoted by $\omega$) and in each paper slip I write numbers, e.g.,

            X  Y epsilon
paperslip1  5  1 0.5

paperslip1  5  0 0.2

paperslip1  6  0 0.3

...

1): In order to understand the measurability condition in the definition of a random variable, we firstly need to say which measure we are using. We need a probability measure, which a denote by $P: \mathcal{\Omega}\rightarrow \mathcal{F}$, where $\mathcal{\mathcal{F}}$ is a $\sigma$-algebra on $\Omega$. How do we construct it? The first naively idea that comes to my mind is by using the counting measure, e.g., assuming $\{5\}\in \mathcal{F}$ $$ P(\omega \in \Omega \text{ s.t. } X(\omega)\in \{5\})\equiv\frac{\text{ # paper slips with $5$ written on them}}{\text{# paper slips}}=\frac{\text{some number, not necessarily finite}}{\infty}=0 \text{ or }\frac{\infty}{\infty} $$ This is clearly not a probability measure. Hence, using the counting measure is wrong when we have an infinite population. Correct?


2): If my arguments in 1) are correct, then we need to find another way to construct a probability measure. The second idea that comes to my mind is by using the length measure, e.g., assuming $\{5\}\in \mathcal{F}$ $$ P(\omega \in \Omega \text{ s.t. } X(\omega)\in \{5\})\equiv\frac{\text{ Length of paper slips with $5$ written on them}}{\text{Length paper slips}}=\frac{\text{some finite number}}{\text{some finite number}}\in [0,1] $$ We can easily verify that all the properties that a probability measure should have are satisfied. Correct? Also, is it true that the length measure is always finite?


3): If my arguments in 2) are correct, could you help me to understand what is $\mathcal{F}$? It seems to me that all events are length measurable.


4): Within this context, is it correct to define continuous random variables, as random variables for which the length of singleton sets in $\mathcal{F}$ is zero? And, conversely, discrete random variables, as random variables for which the length of singleton sets in $\mathcal{F}$ is strictly positive?

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    $\begingroup$ The tickets-in-a-box model is an exceedingly accurate conceptual model. It is not intended to support the (usually misunderstood) concept of "infinitely many" tickets. Fortunately, such a concept is not needed. Standard mathematics usually avoids it altogether by taking limits. There is a branch of probability theory based on nonstandard analysis which doesn't require infinities at all: every "box" truly is finite. See stat.umn.edu/geyer/nsa. $\endgroup$
    – whuber
    Commented Mar 8, 2018 at 21:40
  • $\begingroup$ Thanks a lot. Are you say, e.g., that there is no easy way to conceptualise (in a sampling approach to inference) continuous random variables using an framework similar to the tickets-in-a-box model? Do we necessarily have to go to nonstandard analysis? Or, is the limit thing that you are mentioning, a possible easy way to proceed? $\endgroup$
    – Star
    Commented Mar 8, 2018 at 22:01
  • $\begingroup$ And if the limit approach can help me, could you walk me through? $\endgroup$
    – Star
    Commented Mar 8, 2018 at 22:07
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    $\begingroup$ I would love to, but I probably don't have the time right now. There's a wonderful account of the process for a particular example in Steven Shreve Stochastic Calculus for Finance Vol. I. Volume II, where measure theory is (finally) introduced, formalizes it and shows the connections between this limiting process and filtrations of sigma algebras. $\endgroup$
    – whuber
    Commented Mar 8, 2018 at 22:15
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    $\begingroup$ Read chapter 2: it's available as a free PDF from the Springer site I linked to. That will quickly tell you whether the level and style of this text is to your liking. $\endgroup$
    – whuber
    Commented Mar 8, 2018 at 23:20

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