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I have a time series of crop area that looks like below-

enter image description here

I have other parameters- profit, interest rate, crop prices, and dollar value, and I believe that these parameters can predict the area value. I checked the spearman correlation between crop area and all x variables, the correlation was good and significant.

My first question is- do I need to consider this equation as time series forecasting or a simple regression problem?

Now, I am planning to fit a random forest regressor. I noticed that when I provide the training data with shuffling = True, it predicts with great accuracy but if shuffling = False, the accuracy is very poor. My second question is- why does this happen? I did not provide time as an explanatory variable, how does the model know? Is it because some of the x variables are also highly correlated with time and the model knows about them?

Do I need to use other machine learning algorithms than a random forest? If yes, which one would work better in this situation?

My objective is to not forecast the area in the future but to do a scenario analysis. For example, I want to know what would be the area trajectory if the interest rate is reduced by 50% or profit is increased by 25%.

EDIT Part of the second question is answered here

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    $\begingroup$ "I noticed that when I provide the training data with shuffling = True, it predicts with great accuracy but if shuffling = False, the accuracy is very poor. My second question is- why does this happen?" This is already answered in your other question. $\endgroup$
    – Sycorax ♦
    Commented Mar 24, 2022 at 22:06
  • $\begingroup$ That's true, I will edit it, I have been writing the question for a long. $\endgroup$
    – lsr729
    Commented Mar 24, 2022 at 22:08
  • $\begingroup$ And as in the previous question you emphasize making predictions. While in fact "I would like to change the independent data and see how the response variable would have been if the X_1 is increased by 10%..." $\endgroup$
    – dipetkov
    Commented Mar 24, 2022 at 22:23
  • $\begingroup$ @dipetkov I edited the question and expressed what my objective is. $\endgroup$
    – lsr729
    Commented Mar 24, 2022 at 22:34

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