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Detecting the onset of unusual activity is the subject of outlier detection and nearly about every answer that i have recently made. A model reflecting period to period dependency and/or day-to=day dependency can be developed using Transfer Function/Dynamic Regression while "unusual" innovation can be detected when typical rules fail. outlier detection may also be of help.If you wish to post your data I would be happy to take a look at it and hopefully other readers would do the same.