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Stephan Kolassa
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Interpret ARIMA models in plain english

What is the proper plain-English interpretation of these models (unit of measure is month)?

  1. $\text{ARIMA}(4,1,1)$
  2. $\text{ARIMA}(3,1,3)(1,0,2)_{12}$
  3. $\text{ARIMA}(0,1,1)$
  4. $\text{ARIMA}(1,1,0)$

My attempt:

  1. The value of the current month depends on the values of the last four months along with the prediction error of the last month.
  2. (not sure)
  3. The value of the current month depends only on the prediction error of the last month
  4. The value of the current month depends only on the value from the last month