I have gathered 25 years worth of monthly timeseries data.
The value of Y (dependent variable) has seasonality of 10 months. I have used polynomial equation to model seasonality cycle. The trend is growing which I am using best fit line to forecast.
Finally,
I am calculating residual:
Residual = Y/(trend x seasonality) for each month
However as I move on in time, the range of residuals increase. For example, residual at month 1 is 100 and for the first year, it remains within 50-300. In year 25 month 1, it is 3560. And it remains within 50-4500 for the year 25. This is a much higher range.
I am new to times series analysis and wanted to know how do I model this increase in values?
Is there a name of this type of timeseries issue?
I am using python. Please suggest any pointers.