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Mark White
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The two are trials dependent, so this is the marginal probability averaged across situations when X = 0 and X = 1.

On the second draw, there's either:

  • 2 red balls and 5 blue balls (2/7), which has a probability of 3/8 of occurring (this is conditioning on X = 1)

  • 3 red balls and 4 blue balls (3/7), which has a probability of 5/8 of occurring (this is conditioning on X = 0)

It is a weighted average of 2/7 and 3/7, with the weights being those probabilities based on the first draw, X:

((2/7) * (3/8) + (3/7) * (5/8)) = 3/8.

Simulation verifying this, in R:

set.seed(1839)
balls <- c(1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0) # 0 is blue, 1 is red
res <- replicate(500000, sample(balls, size = 2, replace = FALSE))

# this returns a matrix with 500,000 columns
# the second row represents the second draw
# how many of these are 1?
prop.table(table(res[2, ]))

That returns 0.375028, or about 3/8:

       0        1 
0.624972 0.375028 
Mark White
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