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Henry
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Requested in comments:

Clearly in general $\mathbb{E}[Z\mid Z\le \tau] \le \tau \lt \mathbb{E}[Z\mid Z>\tau]$, assuming the expectations exist.

If $\tau$ is the median of $Z$ then:

  • $\mathbb P(Z>\tau) \le \frac12 \le \mathbb P(Z\le \tau)$
  • $\mathbb{E}[Z] = \mathbb P(Z>\tau)\,\mathbb{E}[Z\mid Z>\tau] + \mathbb P(Z\le\tau)\,\mathbb{E}[Z\mid Z\le\tau]$
  • so $\mathbb{E}[Z] \le \frac12 \mathbb{E}[Z\mid Z>\tau] + \frac12 \mathbb{E}[Z\mid Z\le\tau] $
  • and thus $\mathbb{E}[Z] \le \frac12 \mathbb{E}[Z\mid Z>\tau]+ \frac12 \tau $
  • implying $\mathbb{E}[Z\mid Z>\tau] \ge 2 \mathbb{E}[Z] -\tau$
  • which combined with the earlier result gives $$\mathbb{E}(Z\mid Z>\tau)\ge \max(\tau,2\mathbb{E}(Z) -\tau).$$
Henry
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