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Results tagged with probability
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user 13516
A probability provides a quantitative description of the likely occurrence of a particular event.
0
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Combining probabilities in case of incomplete information
If the original models did not consider conditional probabilities you are only left with the option of treating both these probabilities as independent.
$
P(not cancel) = 1 - P(cancel)
$.
Here $P(ca …
- 1,046
1
vote
Maximizing probability of winning on loaded coin
A 75% win probability is definitely a good edge to have. To answer your question, yes it is possible to generalize for n: 100 - n. …
- 1,046
3
votes
2
answers
312
views
A question on Bayesian Search
I chanced on this article on wikipedia on Bayesian search. In the mathematics section, it states how the posteriors are estimated. While I understand how $p^{'}$ is calculated, I can't seem to figure …
- 1,046
1
vote
Can logistic regression's predicted probability be interpreted as the confidence in the clas...
If a classifier predicts a certain class with a probability, that number can be used as a proxy for the degree of confidence in that classification. Not to be confused with confidence intervals. … For example if classifier P predicts two cases as +1 & -1 with probability 80% & 60% then it is correct to say that it is more sure of the +1 classification than the -1 classification. …
- 1,046
1
vote
Probability of picking a biased coin
Here is a write that describes something very similar to that. The Bayes approach is the right way to proceed.
- 1,046
2
votes
2
answers
1k
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Bayes Estimation on Dirichlet distribution
I'm trying to get my head around the "hidden species" problem. It goes something like this. You visit a park and run into three species, 3 lions, 2 tigers and 1 bear. You are to determine what is your …
- 1,046
0
votes
0
answers
24
views
Finding users who will buy. Intractable Numbers
For each user, I've an estimated probability that they would take an action. Call this $1- p_i$. … So its not strictly the probability that the user would take an action. I want to estimate how many users in aggregate $T$ can I expect to take the action. …
- 1,046
4
votes
0
answers
682
views
Using probability scores from a random forest
Actual
0 1
Predicted
0 0.97 0.03
1 0.13 0.87
Separately, I've the priors for the probability of a given product being sold. i.e. number of customers buying a certain … My question is two fold
1) When I run the model for a given customer and product combination, I get a probability estimate of buy (given by predict function with type="prob"). …
- 1,046
3
votes
1
answer
210
views
Binary classifier probability measure?
I've a binary classifier which classifies input feature vectors into either of two classes '$y$' or '$n$', along with the probability of it being in either of the classes $P_y$ and $P_n$. … How do I estimate the true probability of it being in each of the classes?
What I'm doing now is to compute $0.6*P_y / (0.6*P_y + 0.4*(1- P_y))$. …
- 1,046