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Seasonality refers to the recurring fluctuation around the mean of a time-series for a given period of time, usually a calendar year.

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How do I forecast time series for which the range of residuals is increasing over time?

The value of Y (dependent variable) has seasonality of 10 months. I have used polynomial equation to model seasonality cycle. The trend is growing which I am using best fit line to forecast. … Finally, I am calculating residual: Residual = Y/(trend x seasonality) for each month However as I move on in time, the range of residuals increase. …
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