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Results tagged with seasonality
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user 217435
Seasonality refers to the recurring fluctuation around the mean of a time-series for a given period of time, usually a calendar year.
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How do I forecast time series for which the range of residuals is increasing over time?
The value of Y (dependent variable) has seasonality of 10 months.
I have used polynomial equation to model seasonality cycle.
The trend is growing which I am using best fit line to forecast. … Finally,
I am calculating residual:
Residual = Y/(trend x seasonality) for each month
However as I move on in time, the range of residuals increase. …