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A basic forecasting technique for time series data, optionally including trend and/or seasonality, but (usually) excluding causal influences.

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Standard Deviation of an Exponentially-weighted Mean

You can use the following recurrent formula: $\sigma_i^2 = S_i = (1 - \alpha) (S_{i-1} + \alpha (x_i - \mu_{i-1})^2)$ Here $x_i$ is your observation in the $i$-th step, $\mu_{i-1}$ is the estimated …
Roman Shapovalov's user avatar