Assume I have a random variable $X \sim Poisson(\lambda)$ which models the potential nr of people entering some room. Now consider this room has a capacity $c$ so that whenever $X > c$ we observe $c$, so basically we consider the random variable $Y = min(c, X)$.
Now if we consider that $\lambda$ is fairly small, say $\lambda = 5$ and we consider that $c = 5$ then if I point estimate by taking the mean of $Y$ I will get some value $y \approx4$.
However, if I take the original room and put in a bunch of walls to make sub-rooms where each sub-room now has a capacity of $c=1$ and I divide up the intensity between these new rooms so that $\lambda = 1$ for each room and then point estimate by the mean again I get values $y_i \approx0.6, i = 1,...,5$. If I sum these different means I will get $y \approx3$
So by putting in those walls in my room and uniformly divided up the intensity between them I have essentially "lost" 1 whole expected person entering. I've been trying to wrap my head around it but haven't been able to come up with a satisfying answer of
- How this is bad modelling (which I assume it is)
- How to model this kind of situation better
Any ideas?
Also, a snippet of code in R to illustrate:
f <- function(lambda, C) {
lambda * ppois(C-2,lambda) + C * ppois(C-1, lambda, lower.tail=FALSE)
}
censored1 = f(1, 1)
censored2 = f(5, 5)
list("manySmallRooms" = censored1*5, "oneBiggerRoom" = censored2)
$manySmallRooms
[1] 3.160603
$oneBiggerRoom
[1] 4.122663