I am trying to understand the coefficients retrieved from running auto.arima
in R on my monthly time series of the annual change in House prices. When doing so, I obtain the following outcome:
Series: AC.HousePrices
ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,0,1)[12] with drift
Coefficients:
ar1 ma1 sma1 drift
0.3243 -0.6592 -0.7892 -6e-04
s.e. 0.1733 0.1333 0.1161 4e-04
sigma^2 estimated as 0.0008257: log likelihood=275.22
AIC=-540.44 AICc=-539.96 BIC=-526.07
To be honest I do not understand why I have two sets of parameters (p,d,q) and (P,D,Q)? The first set (1,1,1) seems to indicate that the series is first-order autoregressive model, nonstationary and with a simple exponential smoothing with drift? What are the second set of values (0,0,1)[12], is it telling me that my series looks yearly seasonal [12]?