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I am trying to predict the sales of a product whose past 5 years data is available to me and some independent variable are also available (like the target market size, marketing budget, price, etc.). So now I can't use ARIMA or some time series model nor can I simply use regression to predict the sales. How should I go forward with this?

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  • $\begingroup$ Are your independent variable data concurrent, or are you trying to forecast future sales based on current IV data? Do you want to forecast the IV data & then predict sales? Something else? $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 2, 2017 at 14:55
  • $\begingroup$ The IV are concurrent with the past sales data $\endgroup$
    – Karan
    Commented Jun 3, 2017 at 15:55

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You need a model that will both use independent predictors AND take account of the autocorrelation issues.

A dynamic regression model will do this. There's a good explanation with an example (and snippets of R code) in Hyndman and Athana­sopou­los's book, section 9.1: https://www.otexts.org/fpp/9/1

The basic steps are these (from the source cited): enter image description here

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