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I study about random processes. Let us have $\{X_1, X_2, \dots X_n\}$ observations. I learned, that in stationary time series the sample autocovariance function is defined as

$$ \widehat{γ}(h)= \frac{1}{n} \sum_{t=1}^{n−|h|} (X_{t+|h|} - \overline{X})(X_{t} - \overline{X})$$ for $h \in\{{−(n−1),…,(n−1)\}}$ and $\overline{X} = \hat{μ} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} X_i$ is the sample mean.

I wonder, why we devide the sum by $n$. I have read, that if we compute sample autocovariance function like this:

$$ \hat{γ_1}(h)= \frac{1}{n-h} \sum_{t=1}^{n−|h|} (X_{t+|h|} - \overline{X})(X_{t} - \overline{X}) $$

the estimation of variance a linear combination of observations (for example: $X_1 + X_2$) can possibly be negative $\widehat {Var}(X_1 + X_2) < 0$.

Could you help me find a concrete example of this? I want to find a concrete realisation of a random proces and a linear combination, that when I count for example: $$ \widehat {Var}(X_1 + X_2) = \hat{γ_1}(0) + \hat{γ_1}(0) + 2\hat{γ_1}(1) $$ the variance is negative.

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  • $\begingroup$ I believe the discussion at stats.stackexchange.com/questions/81754/… may shed some light on this issue and perhaps even suggest the example you are seeking. $\endgroup$
    – whuber
    Commented Oct 16, 2019 at 21:39
  • $\begingroup$ I add my attempt to solve the problem. $\endgroup$
    – martina
    Commented Oct 16, 2019 at 21:59

1 Answer 1

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I have observations $\{3,2,1,0\}, n=4$

I count $ \overline{X}= \frac{3}{2} \hat{γ_1}(0)=\frac{5}{4}, \hat{γ_1}(3)=-\frac{9}{4}$

then

$ \widehat {Var}(X_1 + X_4)=\widehat {Var}(X_1)+\widehat {Var}(X_4)+2\widehat {Cov}(X_1, X_4)= 2\hat{γ_1}(0)+2\hat{γ_1}(3)= \frac{5}{2} - \frac{9}{2} = -2<0$

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