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i am new to R, and i was hoping to get some answers to some questions i have

  1. is there a function to loop through a range of ARIMA model to get the best order/seasonal based on BIC/AIC ?
  2. do i have always to difference the data if its not not stationary or there might be another reason to that and i dont have to take the differencing ?
  3. i used Auto ARIMA to find the best ARIMA model based on its BIC, and i specifically specified BIC perimeter in the Auto ARIMA function but when i tried to use some candidate ARIMA order i was able to get a lower BIC than what the Auto ARIMA got, how is that possible ?
  4. what could be a better practice, to use the differencing time series data in the arima function , or to use the original one and specify that there is an order of d there?
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  1. Yes. Use forecast::auto.arima(data, ic="bic")
  2. No. auto.arima() will determine the number of differences needed for you.
  3. auto.arima() will avoid models which could be numerically unstable. For example, the fitted model could have near unit-roots.
  4. Over-riding the automatic selected order of differencing is sometimes useful. But make sure you are aware of the consequences. See https://otexts.com/fpp2/arima-r.html#understanding-constants-in-r
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  • $\begingroup$ thank you Dr.Rob , but i might not have made it clear, but in my first questions i was asking about a function that can use a range of orders like the one in JMP. As you look at the ACF, PACF and and what could be the suggested candidate orders and then use a range of them to have JMP loop through that range and spit out the one with the minimum BIC/AIC according to your choice $\endgroup$
    – ragy
    Commented Aug 29, 2020 at 13:48
  • $\begingroup$ auto.arima allows you some control over what models are included in the search. See the help file. The ARIMA function from the fable package provides even more control. $\endgroup$ Commented Aug 30, 2020 at 0:12

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