I’m working on a trading system and need to apply some statistics on the results. Unfortunately I forgot all about statistics after I left university over a decade ago and now I really have no clue how I must calculate what I need. Hopefully someone can help me out.
Out of the trading application (currently in test mode), I get profit / loss (PL) per trade and per day.
Let’s say I have the day-to-day PL (an accumulation will give the total PL over the given period) of 5 years back testing (about 1250 points), what is the best way of “predicting” what the total profit might be in the next 6 months (125 points ahead) and the next year (250 points ahead)?
Of course not every trade is profitable. So I have some trades with losses and (hopefully) more trades with profit.
What is the best way of calculating what the profit per day (with a certain reliability) will be when you only take the winning trades into account, what lose will be when you only look at the losing trades and what the PL will be when you take both winning and losing trade combined.
How can I calculate the change that over an X period of time, the strategy will, with a certain percentage of reliability) make money?
Furthermore, I will of course not trade just one strategy, but multiple. Based on back testing, how can I calculate the likelihood that the portfolio I will be trading will make money in x period and how can I calculate the bandwidth for the expected profit for the pool?
Hope you can help me out which methods to use (I’ll be programming it in C# by the way).
Example of day-to-day PL (rounded rounded to 0 decimals for the layout):
DBDate PeriodToPeriodPL Accumulation 20060720 0 20060721 -1741 -1741 20060724 -716 -2458 20060725 -821 -3279 20060726 -149 -3427 20060727 -3517 -6945 20060728 2253 -4692 20060731 97 -4594 20060801 54 -4541 20060802 329 -4212 20060803 726 -3486 20060804 569 -2917 20060807 1359 -1558 20060808 -682 -2240 20060809 -635 -2874 20060810 -277 -3152 20060811 -255 -3406 20060814 -542 -3948 20060815 -1320 -5268 20060816 932 -4336 20060817 2553 -1783 20060818 -155 -1938 20060821 -367 -2305 20060822 669 -1637 20060823 433 -1204 20060824 -734 -1938 20060825 361 -1577 20060828 -479 -2056 20060829 -363 -2419 20060830 -1268 -3686 20060831 -424 -4111 20060901 779 -3331 20060904 1857 -1475 20060905 -356 -1831 20060906 -163 -1994 20060907 -458 -2452 20060908 1130 -1322 20060911 -254 -1576 20060912 -731 -2308 20060913 -442 -2749 20060914 986 -1763 20060915 -497 -2260 20060918 1236 -1024 20060919 -842 -1866 20060920 80 -1786 20060921 -2628 -4413 20060922 185 -4228 20060925 -111 -4339 20060926 377 -3963 20060927 -1806 -5769 20060928 881 -4888 20060929 -800 -5688 20061002 2010 -3677 20061003 794 -2884 20061004 1063 -1821 20061005 2214 393 20061006 1110 1503 20061009 1401 2903 20061010 -65 2838 20061011 -77 2761 20061012 -787 1974 20061013 -1512 462 20061016 300 762 20061017 1058 1820 20061018 1625 3445 20061019 773 4218 20061020 1854 6072 20061023 492 6564 20061024 -1063 5501 20061025 1230 6731 20061026 148 6878 20061027 11 6889 20061030 -1189 5700 20061031 -47 5652 20061101 -484 5168 20061102 -152 5017 20061103 -998 4019 20061106 -591 3428 20061107 -970 2458 20061108 378 2836 20061109 1217 4052 20061110 745 4797 20061113 201 4998 20061114 -454 4545 20061115 149 4693 20061116 134 4828 20061117 -677 4151 20061120 1404 5555 20061121 864 6418 20061122 271 6689 20061123 1503 8192 20061124 4577 12769 20061127 2245 15014 20061128 -2902 12112 20061129 2002 14114 20061130 1108 15222 20061201 1256 16479 20061204 2236 18715 20061205 -1496 17219 20061206 842 18061 20061207 -1639 16422 20061208 650 17072 20061211 248 17320 20061212 -218 17102 20061213 -873 16228 20061214 -364 15865 20061215 -27 15838 20061218 -543 15295 20061219 -974 14321 20061220 2152 16473 20061221 3382 19855 20061222 -22 19832 20061227 -44 19789 20061228 1497 21286 20061229 979 22265 20070102 -1136 21129 20070103 -620 20509 20070104 -2040 18469 20070105 -3541 14927 20070108 -337 14591 20070109 3120 17711 20070110 -1904 15806 20070111 -778 15028 20070112 514 15542 20070115 141 15683 20070116 828 16511 20070117 2184 18694 20070118 769 19463 20070119 -391 19072 20070122 -1349 17723 20070123 -231 17492 20070124 1493 18985 20070125 -7452 11533 20070126 -1504 10029 20070129 496 10526 20070130 4924 15450 20070131 -482 14968 20070201 -683 14285 20070202 -2375 11910 20070205 509 12420 20070206 3099 15519 20070207 -765 14753 20070208 859 15613 20070209 -162 15451 20070212 -61 15390 20070213 -1330 14060 20070214 884 14944 20070215 -524 14420 20070216 1504 15924 20070219 966 16890 20070220 577 17467 20070221 3182 20649 20070222 2579 23228 20070223 -2234 20994 20070226 -1637 19357 20070227 683 20040 20070228 1572 21612 20070301 -83 21528 20070302 371 21899 20070305 1089 22988 20070306 -470 22518 20070307 157 22675 20070308 -839 21837 20070309 209 22046 20070312 1658 23705 20070313 -970 22734 20070314 -1319 21415 20070315 1298 22713 20070316 204 22918 20070319 -894 22024 20070320 -1189 20835 20070321 -231 20604 20070322 -1939 18666 20070323 189 18854 20070326 -364 18490 20070327 616 19106 20070328 -2183 16922 20070329 570 17492 20070330 897 18389 20070402 501 18889 20070403 1067 19956 20070404 -243 19714 20070405 -2119 17595 20070410 2158 19753 20070411 -753 19000 20070412 -648 18353 20070413 1046 19399 20070416 1773 21172 20070417 -312 20859 20070418 203 21062 20070419 3498 24560 20070420 5839 30399 20070423 1620 32019 20070424 -3004 29015 20070425 -1182 27833 20070426 -1897 25936 20070427 -1849 24087 20070430 0 24087 20070502 0 24087 20070503 0 24087 20070504 0 24087 20070507 1515 25602 20070508 899 26501 20070509 120 26620 20070510 -743 25878 20070511 6129 32007 20070514 -618 31389 20070515 -321 31068 20070516 -2096 28972 20070517 9 28981 20070518 3362 32343 20070521 806 33149 20070522 824 33973 20070523 41 34014 20070524 4741 38755 20070525 1337 40092 20070529 -258 39834 20070530 -1037 38797 20070531 -2438 36359 20070601 -227 36132 20070604 -1223 34909 20070605 -309 34601 20070606 465 35065 20070607 -1273 33792 20070608 1515 35308 20070611 -1985 33323 20070612 0 33323 20070613 977 34299 20070614 3523 37823 20070615 2774 40597 20070618 -1459 39138 20070619 1491 40628 20070620 2928 43556 20070621 -1287 42269 20070622 436 42706 20070625 151 42857 20070626 509 43366 20070627 -626 42741 20070628 2392 45133 20070629 -1406 43727 20070702 510 44236 20070703 2164 46401 20070704 1362 47763 20070705 123 47886 20070706 -1548 46338 20070709 -994 45344 20070710 1279 46623 20070711 993 47616 20070712 -274 47341 20070713 775 48116 20070716 1083 49200 20070717 1581 50780 20070718 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20080715 219 100673 20080716 -131 100542 20080717 3144 103686 20080718 4944 108630 20080721 -1150 107480 20080722 -1189 106291 20080723 1711 108002 20080724 -1233 106769 20080725 1286 108055 20080728 -982 107073 20080729 749 107822 20080730 5316 113138 20080731 536 113674 20080801 -1509 112166 20080804 -462 111704 20080805 -1617 110087 20080806 -2006 108081 20080807 -396 107685 20080808 342 108027 20080811 1433 109460 20080812 -1532 107928 20080813 -932 106996 20080814 -756 106240 20080815 -1902 104338 20080818 -240 104098 20080819 -1652 102445 20080820 -247 102199 20080821 1876 104075 20080822 -122 103953 20080825 727 104679 20080826 424 105103 20080827 704 105807 20080828 -1731 104076 20080829 -1425 102651 20080901 386 103037 20080902 2854 105891 20080903 -554 105337 20080904 -1844 103493 20080905 -311 103182 20080908 -1237 101945 20080909 -901 101044 20080910 -230 100813 20080911 892 101706 20080912 -786 100919 20080915 60 100980 20080916 675 101654 20080917 274 101929 20080918 1770 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