I am running X-13 SEATS on r for monthly data in six years of observations and I think I got a (sufficiently) reasonable fit for the ARIMA model, but the output also shows me that my original series does not have significant seasonality, as it follows:
Call:
seas(x = data_r[, 1], transform.function = "log", regression.aictest = NULL,
outlier = NULL, arima.model = "(0 1 1)(1 1 0)")
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
AR-Seasonal-12 -0.6194 0.1110 -5.581 2.39e-08 ***
MA-Nonseasonal-01 0.6220 0.1093 5.690 1.27e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
SEATS adj. ARIMA: (0 1 1)(1 1 0) Obs.: 60 Transform: log
AICc: 773.4, BIC: 778.4 QS (no seasonality in final): 0
Box-Ljung (no autocorr.): 20.04 Shapiro (normality): 0.9754
>
qs p-val
qsori 0 1
qsorievadj 0 1
qsrsd 0 1
qssadj 0 1
qssadjevadj 0 1
qsirr 0 1
qsirrevadj 0 1
(Still, there is also the fact that the irregular component seems to dominate the SI ratio for some specific months in some years. So maybe there is some dummy variable in the pre-adjustment that I am missing (right?))
But when I run a regression on Stata for yearly and monthly dummies on the original series -- assuming the seasonality is deterministic --, I cannot reject with an F test that they are all equal to zero. What does this show me? That my ARIMA fit is not correct?
Also, if someone could point me out the difference in interpretation that you should have when running a regression on seasonal dummies and deseasonalizing data with a X-13 SEATS, it would be also very helpful. Maybe that is what I am missing here.
Edit: is it by any chance a common practice, in some particular situations (when you are deseasonalizing a set of series), still deseasonalize a given series even if that series does not show significant seasonality?
Edit2: Adding the results of the automatic adjustment:
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
Constant 59.1761 38.0551 1.555 0.11994
Easter[15] -903.6151 341.1891 -2.648 0.00809 **
MA-Nonseasonal-01 0.4974 0.1138 4.370 1.24e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
SEATS adj. ARIMA: (0 1 1) Obs.: 60 Transform: none
AICc: 925.6, BIC: 933.2 QS (no seasonality in final): 0
Box-Ljung (no autocorr.): 21.9 Shapiro (normality): 0.9498 *
qs p-val
qsori 0 1
qsorievadj 0 1
qsrsd 0 1
qssadj 0 1
qssadjevadj 0 1
qsirr 0 1
qsirrevadj 0 1
I also, I get the following error for the monthplot function with the automatic adjustment:
Error in `[.default`(x$data, , "seasonal") : subscript out of bounds
Following this result from the automatic adjustment, the use of the dummy for easter, with the original specification, does not change that much the first output:
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
Easter[15] -0.08307 0.02690 -3.088 0.00202 **
AR-Seasonal-12 -0.63353 0.10816 -5.858 4.7e-09 ***
MA-Nonseasonal-01 0.50391 0.12075 4.173 3.0e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
SEATS adj. ARIMA: (0 1 1)(1 1 0) Obs.: 60 Transform: log
AICc: 767.9, BIC: 774.3 QS (no seasonality in final): 0
Box-Ljung (no autocorr.): 29.37 Shapiro (normality): 0.9721
qs p-val
qsori 0 1
qsorievadj 0 1
qsrsd 0 1
qssadj 0 1
qssadjevadj 0 1
qsirr 0 1
qsirrevadj 0 1
Most recent observation: Now I Think I am fairly sure that there is no significant seasonality in this series, but I would be thankful if someone could show me other problems that I might not be considering. Still, I would like a possible canonical/scholarly answer on why I can reject the null hypothesis for the whole set of seasonal dummies being zero (though I had a small result for the F test with my data, ~4, but I still reject the null) and still get a reasonable ARIMA fit with which I cannot reject no seasonality in my original data. Does that have something to do with the difference of the adjustment with ARIMA models and deterministic seasonality? An intuitive answer on this difference would be of some help.