1
$\begingroup$

I used two different methods to forecast a time series data.

The first one used is HoltWinters with Beta and Gamma as FALSE, since I don't see any trend or seasonality in the plot. Below is the result from Box.test

Box.test(fore.holt.stat$residuals, type="Ljung-Box", lag=10)

Box-Ljung test
data:  fore.holt.stat$residuals
X-squared = 10.691, df = 10, p-value = 0.3821

The p-value is 0.3821

I used auto.arima on the data and below is the result

Box.test(fore.arima$residuals, type="Ljung-Box", lag=10)

Box-Ljung test
data:  fore.arima$residuals
X-squared = 14.724, df = 10, p-value = 0.1425

The p-value is 0.14

Question 1:

Can I say that the first model is better since I have a higher p-value?

Below are few other observations :

Model 1:

accuracy(fore.holt.stat)
           ME     RMSE      MAE       MPE     MAPE     MASE       ACF1
Training set 424.9864 10275.55 7930.602 0.8782302 9.251837 0.766108 0.02142331

Model 2:

 accuracy(fore.arima)
           ME     RMSE     MAE        MPE     MAPE      MASE      ACF1
 Training set 284.5242 7243.413 5371.42 -0.1874984 6.036736 0.5183941 0.0100049


Question 2:

Which of the model is correct based on the accuracy() function output?

In both the models, the p-value is high, but the mean of errors is not close to zero.

$\endgroup$
1
  • $\begingroup$ Did you test tslm? $\endgroup$
    – Braisly
    Commented Sep 28, 2015 at 17:08

0

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.